2020–21 NBA Season Previews: Part 1
Welcome to the first installment of what is sure to become an annual tradition — Kevin’s NBA Season Previews!
I have been wanting to do a project like this for years but, until now, have never managed to get around to it. I’m delighted to say that changes now.
Allow me to address a few items before we dive in…
- Aren’t these a little late? Yes, I am well aware the NBA season is already underway. Ideally, I would have published these previews before the start of the season — and that’s exactly what I am planning to do in future years — but if 2020 has taught us anything it’s that even the best laid plans are often subject to change, and this project has been no exception. Rest assured that neither my research nor my predictions have been changed from the results we have already seen. (When you see where I have some of the teams finishing the season, that should become clear — gulp.)
- What makes these previews unique? As you will see in just a moment, my take on the NBA season preview format is a little different than what others do. I wanted my first go-round to be something more of a cross between a detailed guide on each of the 30 teams — including snapshots of what they did in the previous season, what moves they made in the offseason, and how their lineups could look — and my own thoughts on what will ultimately define them throughout the upcoming season. I also try to infuse a little humor to lighten things up (namely the ‘Over/Under’ sections).
- Part 1… of how many? I will publish these season previews in a total of 3 parts, along the lines of the league’s divisions. Each part will focus on two divisions — one from the Eastern Conference and one from the West.
Finally, a note of the ‘Prediction’ sections. I consulted two sources as I was deciding how I would predict each team’s win/loss totals: FiveThirtyEight’s annual team projections and VegasInsider.com’s 2020–21 NBA Win Totals Odds. For easier use, and so you won’t have to comb through all three parts and reverse engineer my regular season predictions on your own, here’s how I see the regular season playing out:
East: 1. Milwaukee Bucks, 2. Boston Celtics, 3. Miami Heat, 4. Philadelphia 76ers, 5. Brooklyn Nets, 6. Toronto Raptors, 7. Indiana Pacers, 8. Atlanta Hawks, 9. Washington Wizards, 10. Orlando Magic, 11. Chicago Bulls, 12. Charlotte Hornets, 13. Cleveland Cavaliers, 14. Detroit Pistons, 15. New York Knicks.
West: 1. Los Angeles Lakers, 2. Denver Nuggets, 3. Los Angeles Clippers, 4. Dallas Mavericks, 5. Portland Trail Blazers, 6. Utah Jazz, 7. Phoenix Suns, 8. Memphis Grizzlies, 9. Golden State Warriors, 10. New Orleans Pelicans, 11. San Antonio Spurs, 12. Houston Rockets, 13. Sacramento Kings, 14. Minnesota Timberwolves, 15. Oklahoma City Thunder.
Now, without further ado, let’s dive into part 1 — the Atlantic and Pacific Divisions.
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 48–24 (3rd in East, lost to MIA in Eastern Conference Finals)
OffRtg: 112.8 (4th) | DefRtg: 106.5 (4th) | NetRtg: 6.3 (3rd) | Pace: 99.92 (17th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Tristan Thompson (2 years, $19M), Jeff Teague
Lost: Gordon Hayward, Brad Wanamaker, Enes Kanter, Vincent Poirier
Drafted: Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard, Yam Madar
Expiring: Daniel Theis ($5m), Semi Ojeleye, Jeff Teague
Rotation
Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Tristian Thompson
Bench: Jeff Teague, Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith, Semi Ojeleye, Grant Williams, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams
Most Intriguing Lineup: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Grant Williams
Biggest Question for 2020–21
Do the Celtics have enough reliable depth, particularly on the wing?
Three Things I Believe
- The Boston Celtics still have one of the more top-heavy rosters in the league. You can’t lose players the caliber of Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, and Gordon Hayward in the span of sixteen months, with really only a $28.5m trade exception to show for it, and not feel the effects of it. Boston’s bench should be able to hang defensively this season. What is less clear is if the Celtics second unit can score. Head Coach Brad Stevens will likely need to stagger his starters’ minutes to keep the second unit afloat throughout the season. Any offensive punch young players like Romeo Langford or Aaron Nesmith can offer to the second unit will make life a lot easier for the Celtics.
- Kemba Walker’s ailing knee is something to monitor. Walker will miss the beginning of the season as he recovers from offseason stem cell knee surgery; he is likely to return sometime in January. Given their issues with depth, the Celtics will hope Walker does not experience lingering issues in his knee throughout the season. Jeff Teague, whom the Celtics signed in free agency this offseason, will need to play an increased role in Walker’s absence. Expect rookie Payton Pritachard to also get some minutes until Walker returns.
- Tristan Thompson is exactly the kind of player the Celtics need right now. Although the Celtics lost Gordon Hayward in free agency, they were able to address their lingering need at the center position by signing Thompson. Thompson remains a solid and versatile defender who can hold his ground defending the post and not fall to pieces if he has to switch on the perimeter. Daniel Theis was serviceable in the role last season, but he struggled in the playoffs as teams hunted him in the pick and roll. Thompson is a clear upgrade to the areas of greatest need in Boston’s starting five.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Jayson Tatum is widely considered a top 8 player in the league by season’s end.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Marcus Smart will receive 2.5 fines for flopping this season.
Prediction (46–26, 2nd in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
46–26, 2nd in East
Brooklyn Nets
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 35–37 (7th in East, lost to TOR in first round of playoffs)
OffRtg: 108.7 (22nd) | DefRtg: 109.2 (10th) | NetRtg: -0.5 (15th) | Pace: 101.70 (10th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Landry Shamet (trade), Jeff Green, Steve Nash (coach)
Lost: Garrett Temple
Drafted: —
Expiring: Tyler Johnson, Jeff Green
Rotation
Starters: Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Kevin Durant, DeAndre Jordan
Bench: Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince, Jarrett Allen
Most Intriguing Lineup: Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Kevin Durant, Jarrett Allen
Biggest Question for 2020–21
Will the Nets have the defense and chemistry they will need to make a run to the Finals (Eastern Conference or NBA Finals)?
Three Things I Believe
- Kevin Durant will be a serious candidate for MVP this season. Many openly wondered how Durant’s Achilles injury would impact his game when he returned to the court, but I was never one of them. Durant’s game is built around his shooting and is less dependent on athleticism or explosion, which would make this specific injury more concerning considering how it has affected players with those skill sets in the past. I expect Durant will look pretty much the same way he did pre-injury when he returns. He is in line to be the leading scorer and the “1A” option on a team with legitimate championship aspirations this season. That’s usually a safe recipe for MVP votes.
- Joe Harris will lead the league in three-point shooting percentage for the second time in three seasons. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving should draw most of the attention from opposing defenses this season, leaving plenty of open looks for the other Nets players on the floor with them this season. One player I believe will benefit the most is Nets sharpshooter Joe Harris. Harris is one of the best shooters from distance in the league, averaging 42.6% on 4.4 threes per game for his career. Harris already led the NBA in three-point percentage two seasons ago, shooting a staggering 47.4% on 5.1 attempts per game. With the amount of double teams opponents are sure to throw at Durant and Irving this season, Harris should get multiple wide open looks from deep every game. For a shooter of Harris’ caliber, those will be as easy as layups.
- Jarrett Allen should start over DeAndre Jordan. Jordan is not the player he was with the Clippers earlier in his career. That isn’t to say he is going to be a disaster as a starter — in fact, he did play reasonably well after he was inserted into the starting lineup after Brooklyn’s coaching change last season. But Allen, the starter for most of last season before the coaching change, is younger, more athletic, and a better defender at this point of his career.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Caris LaVert wins Sixth Man of the Year this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Kyrie Irving will go on 18.5 incoherent philosophical rabbit holes (minimum 90 seconds) when speaking to the media this season.
Prediction (40–32, 6th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
41–31, 5th in East
New York Knicks
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 21–45 (12th in East)
OffRtg: 105.9 (27th) | DefRtg: 112.4 (23rd) | NetRtg: -6.5 (26th) | Pace: 99.11 (25th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Austin Rivers, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Tom Thibodeau (coach)
Lost: Bobby Portis, Wayne Ellington
Drafted: Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley
Expiring: Alec Burks ($6m), Nerlens Noel ($5m), Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock
Rotation
Starters: Elfrid Payton, RJ Barrett, Reggie Bullock, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
Bench: Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Alec Burks, Austin Rivers, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, Nerlens Noel
Most Intriguing Lineup: Dennis Smith Jr., Alec Bruks, RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson
Biggest Question
Will new head coach Tom Thibodeau give the young Knicks enough minutes to make meaningful progress in their development this season?
Three Things I Believe
- Among this roster’s many glaring weaknesses, the Knicks have no legitimate long-term option at the point guard position. Frank Ntilikina, the final draft pick of Phil Jackson’s disastrous tenure with the team, is a defensive specialist with no indication that he will become anything more. Dennis Smith Jr., when he hasn’t been dealing with injuries or on leave for personal reasons, has only played 55 since the Knicks acquired him from Dallas in the Kristaps Porzingis trade and took a major step back last season (averaging 5.5 points, 2.9 assists, 2.3 rebounds, and 15.8 minutes in 34 games). Rumors swirled this offseason that the team was looking to move on from Smith but nothing materialized. Elfrid Payton, slated to be the team’s starter, is a journeyman who played for three teams in his first five seasons before joining the Knicks in the 2019 offseason. Look around the league and you will be hard pressed to find a team in greater need at arguably the most important position in the game. It’s a safe bet that the Knicks will target a lead guard in a highly touted 2021 draft class — assuming they don’t fall out of the top 5 yet again.
- This could be Julius Randle’s final season with the Knicks. Randle isn’t a bad player by any means. I’m just not sure he is a winning player as a team’s primary option, which is what he is for the Knicks. Sure, his old school, bully-ball style of play looks nice in the stat sheets (19.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game last season), but without spacing it is not a very efficient wrinkle in today’s game (49.2 eFG% last season). I am also concerned about Randle’s fit alongside rookie Obi Toppin, whom the Knicks drafted with the no. 6 overall last month. Toppin has the potential to become a terrific offensive player for the Knicks, capable of knocking down perimeter shots and also doing work in the paint. The trouble, because he is also a power forward, is he will likely only be able to play alongside Randle in small-ball lineups where Randle plays the five. That could work offensively, but it would be a disaster on the defensive end. Randle’s contract is only partially guaranteed at $4m dollars next season. If the Knicks are really going to prioritize player development, they could choose to let Randle walk to free up more opportunities for Toppin beginning in 2021–22.
- Mitchell Robinson may not have the opportunities he needs to maximize his development this season. Robinson is going to start the season at center for the Knicks, which is the correct decision. But the combination of his inability to play without committing fouls (5.3 fouls per 36 minutes for his career) and Tom Thibodeau at the helm could mean Robinson will be in and out of the starting lineup this season. Robinson has tremendous potential as a rim defender and shot blocker. Now he needs to learn how to play with more discipline — and fewer fouls.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Knicks finish with the worst record in the league.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Tom Thibodeau will have 3.5 panic attacks this season.
Prediction (23–49, 13th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
20–52, 15th in the East
Philadelphia 76ers
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 43–30 (6th in the East, lost to BOS in first round of the playoffs)
OffRtg: 110.7 (14th) | DefRtg: 108.4 (8th) | NetRtg: 2.3 (10th) | Pace: 99.59 (20th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Danny Green (trade), Terrance Ferguson (trade), Seth Curry (trade), Dwight Howard, Tony Bradley, Vincent Poirier, Doc Rivers (coach), Daryl Morey (President of Basketball Operations)
Lost: Al Horford, Josh Richardson
Drafted: Tyrese Maxey, Isaiah Joe, Paul Reed
Expiring: Danny Green ($15.3m), Mike Scott ($5m), Dwight Howard, Frukan Korkmaz
Rotation
Starters: Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid
Bench: Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey, Furkan Korkmaz, Matisse Thybulle, Mike Scott, Dwight Howard
Most Intriguing Lineup: Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Can Doc Rivers (plus shooting) solve the Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid conundrum?
Three Things I Believe
- The Sixers should not trade for James Harden… at least not yet. Since Daryl Morey signed on with the Sixers, many have assumed that he would eventually — perhaps inevitably — look to reunite with Harden. Now it’s looking more likely by the day — at least from Harden’s side of the equation. According to numerous reports leading into the season, Harden has officially requested a trade from the Rockets, listing the Sixers as one of his preferred destinations. Any package Philadelphia would have to put together for Harden must include Ben Simmons, and perhaps more unless Houston becomes desperate. While Harden is more of a natural fit alongside Joel Embiid than Simmons is, I think the Sixers should first see how their new additions work before seriously pushing for a trade. If Philadelphia does trade for Harden, it will probably happen right at the deadline.
- Even though the pieces on this Sixers roster are a considerably better fit than last season, I am not convinced Philadelphia will get out of the first round in 2021. The top of the East is loaded this season, with at least six teams who could realistically get to the second round — Milwaukee, Miami, Boston, Brooklyn, Toronto, and Philadelphia. Of those possible playoff opponents, I could only see the Sixers entering as the favorites in a series against the Raptors. Assuming the Raptors enter the playoffs as the 6 seed, that would mean Philadelphia would need to get to the 3 seed to face them. Since I don’t see the Sixers getting higher than 4, it’s likely that they will face the Nets, Celtics, or Heat in the first round. I would favor all three in a series over the Sixers.
- The Sixers will have the most loathed center rotation in the NBA this season. Joel Embiid can be a fun-loving guy off the court, but on the court he’s the kind of player you love to have on your team and hate if he is on the opposing side. Factor in Dwight Howard, whom the Sixers added to back up Embiid this offseason, into the equation and you could have a recipe for more than a few scuffles this season. Howard’s antics — his unnecessarily physical play in particular — have diminished how much he has developed as at least a semi-reliable role guy in the last year. Sometimes he seems more interested in body checking an opposing player when going for a rebound than actually securing it. Put Embiid and Howard together and there could be some heated exchanges on the horizon.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Sixers trade for James Harden this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Ben Simmons will attempt 23.5 shots outside the paint this season (he took 23 total last season).
Prediction (45–27, 3rd in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
44–28, 4th in East
Toronto Raptors
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 53–19 (2nd in East, lost to BOS in second round of playoffs)
OffRtg: 110.8 (13th) | DefRtg: 104.7 (2nd) | NetRtg: 6.1 (4th) | Pace: 101.19 (12th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Aron Baynes, Alex Len, DeAndre’ Bembry
Lost: Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam
Drafted: Malachi Flynn, Jalen Harris
Expiring: Kyle Lowry ($30.5m), Patrick McCaw, Stanley Johnson, Alex Len
Rotation
Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Aron Baynes
Bench: Normal Powell, Matt Thomas, Malachi Flynn, Terrance Davis, Patrick McCaw, Stanley Johnson, Chris Boucher
Most Intriguing Lineup: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Aron Baynes
Biggest Question
Can Pascal Siakam reach another level in the playoffs?
Three Things I Believe
- Pascal Siakam is a perfect number 2 option on a contending team. Siakam’s continued development ensured that the Raptors did not fall off the map after Kawhi Leonard departed the team last offseason. The Most Improved Player in the league from the 2018–19 season, Siakam took another significant step forward in his game last season. His offensive production ballooned from 16.9 points per game in 2018–29 to 22.9 last season as he took on a more featured role in Toronto’s offense. Unfortunately, Siakam’s impressive regular season success didn’t translate to the postseason, where he dropped to 17 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field and 18.9% from three. At age 26, Siakam is still in the early phase of his prime, so there is plenty of time for him to continue to develop in his new role. But I am not so sure Siakam can be the number 1 option on a team that is a serious contender for a title. This season we should get a better sense of his ceiling as a player, and Toronto’s ceiling as a team.
- OG Anunoby needs to take a step forward offensively. In the absence of a bonafide superstar, the Raptors are a team where the sum is greater than its parts, meaning that everyone needs to share a more equal load than on a traditional contender. Anunoby has proven to be one of the better young defensive wing players in the league over the last two seasons. Now it’s time for him to show more on the offensive end of the floor. With Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka no longer with the team, the Raptors will need more scoring from players like Anunoby to stay in the upper tiers of Eastern Conference playoff seeds. Anunoby is a reliable three-point shooter (36.2% for his career, 39% on 5 attempts per game last season), but I’d like to see him find a way to improve his production this season and become more of a threat to attack off the dribble. He averaged 10 points per game last season (a career high). I think he could get that number up to 15 points per game this season.
- Even though they lost two great defenders in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka this offseason, the Raptors will still finish as a top 8 defensive team this season. The Raptors only allowed 104.7 points per 100 possessions last season, which was good enough for second in the league in defensive efficiency. This season they return mostly the same roster, aside from their two highly skilled defensive centers. Fortunately, the Raptors have two other defensive-minded options to take their place — Aaron Baynes and Chris Boucher. Combine them with a head coach who is willing to experiment with defensive schemes and I think the Raptors won’t fall out of the top 8 in defensive efficiency this season.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Raptors lose home court advantage in the playoffs this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Nick Nurse will debut 1.5 new colors of his custom branded hats this season.
Prediction (41–31, 5th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
40–32, 6th in East
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 15–50 (15th in West)
OffRtg: 104.4 (30th) | DefRtg: 113.0 (26th) | NetRtg: -8.6 (30th) | Pace: 101.04 (15th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Kelly Oubre (trade), Brad Wanamaker, Kent Bazemore
Lost: Ky Bowman
Drafted: James Wiseman, Nico Mannion
Expiring: Kelly Oubre ($14.3m), Brad Wannamaker, Kent Bazemore, Marquese Chriss
Rotation
Starters: Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre, Draymond Green, James Wiseman
Bench: Brad Wanamaker, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole, Kent Bazemore, Eric Paschall, Marquese Chriss, Kevon Looney
Most Intriguing Lineup: Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre, Draymond Green, James Wiseman
Biggest Question in 2020–21
How dangerous can the Warriors be this season without Klay Thompson?
Three Things I Believe
- We’ve officially seen the last of these Warriors as title contenders. It brings me no joy to say this because I have loved every minute of Golden State’s five-year championship run, but now I think we can say it is officially over. Klay Thompson is going to miss a second consecutive season due to injury (Achilles). By the time he returns next season, the trio of Thompson, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green will all be over 31 years old and will be facing both stiffer competition at the top of the Western Conference and more uncertainty as to whether they can reclaim their former magic. Unless James Wiesman is the real deal, a player who could become an All-Star before his 21st birthday, I don’t see the current Warriors core getting beyond the second round of the playoffs from here on out.
- If the Warriors can’t unlock Andrew Wiggins, nobody can. Wiggins has been an enigma throughout his six year career — a player with tantalizing upside who just can’t seem to reach the level many expected he would. The annual “Has Wiggins finally arrived?” articles have grown stale, assuming they weren’t already. When the Warriors acquired him last season in a trade that sent D’Angelo Russel to the Timberwolves, I believed he was finally entering the best possible situation to take the next step (assuming there is one) in his development. By joining the Warriors, Wiggins was going to be more of a third option who wasn’t going to have the same demands to produce placed on him that he had in Minnesota. Everything was set up for him to assume that role leading into the season. Then Klay Thompson injury happened, and now the Warriors will need Wiggins to do more than they had originally anticipated. In a new system with better coaching and a championship DNA, it’s now or never for Wiggins to take the leap.
- The Kelly Oubre-Draymond Green duo will bring more energy than downing three 20-ounce Monster energy drinks in the span of a few minutes. Oubre and Green will be one of the most entertaining defensive pairings in the league this season. Both guys pride themselves on the defensive end of the floor. Both are high-energy players who love to run in the open court. Both guys love to talk trash and bark at opposing players. I can’t help but think they will get into a handful of dust ups during games this season, and I’m probably looking forward to that more than I should be. Hopefully the broadcast’s 7-second delay operator is easily distracted or has a short attention span, because this pairing could become the gift that keeps on giving for the fine collection department of the FCC.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Steph Curry finishes in the top 3 of MVP voting this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Draymond Green will receive 18.5 technical fouls this season.
Prediction (31–41, 13th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
36–36, 9th in West
Los Angeles Clippers
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 49–23 (2nd in West, lost to DEN in second round of playoffs)
OffRtg: 113.3. (2nd) | DefRtg: 106.9 (5th) | NetRtg: 6.3 (2nd) | Pace: 102.16 (8th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Serge Ibaka (2 years, $19M), Nicolas Batum, Luke Kennard (trade), Ty Lue (coach)
Lost: Montrezl Harrell, JaMychal Green, Landry Shamet, Doc Rivers (coach)
Drafted: Daniel Oturu, Jay Scrubb
Expiring: Lou Williams ($8m), Patrick Patterson, Nicolas Batum, Reggie Jackson
Rotation
Starters: Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Marcus Morris, Serge Ibaka
Bench: Lou Williams, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Patrick Patterson, Ivica Zubac
Most Intriguing Lineup: Luke Kennard, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Marcus Morris, Serge Ibaka
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Can the Clippers straighten out the chemistry issues that derailed them last season?
Three Things I Believe
- The Clippers roster fits better this season than it did last season. Even though they parted ways with longtime head coach Doc Rivers and lost Montrezl Harrell (the reigning Sixth and of the Year) and JaMychal Green to free agency, the Clippers found replacements who should be just as good or (at least in terms of team chemistry) even a little better. Ty Lue, Doc Rivers’ replacement, is a championship caliber head coach who had a front row seat to the team’s playoff collapse last season. Lue has first-hand knowledge of what went wrong and should be able to instill a new culture of accountability that was lacking in 2019–20. In terms of the players, I believe Serge Ibaka is an upgrade over both Green and Harrell in terms of what he brings on the court, offensively and defensively, and how he will improve the team’s chemistry this season. Ibaka knows how to play his role alongside star players; Harrell had some issues adapting to the organizational changes last season. Luke Kennard is also an upgrade over Landry Shamet as a perimeter shooter who can also facilitate the offense. Overall, the Clippers didn’t take as much of a step back as some pundits claim they did. I actually like their roster better this season.
- Lou Williams or Patrick Bevelrly (or both) are traded for a point guard before the deadline. The most glaring hole in the Clippers lineup is at the lead guard position, where Patrick Beverly and Lou Williams are currently the best options available. Neither player is a traditional point guard: Beverly is more skilled as a defensive pest, while Williams is more of a volume scorer who can also run an offense. The Clippers could look to offload one or both before the trade deadline in an effort to upgrade the position. Any potential trade could be tricky because the Clippers have a shortage of draft picks to offer (most of their picks for the next 5 or so years belong to Oklahoma City from the Paul George trade), but don’t count out the possibility. I think a player like Derrick Rose could make a lot of sense for the Clippers if they can pry him away from Detroit.
- The Clippers will reach the Western Conference Finals this season. Don’t be fooled by what some of the players said after the second round collapse against Denver, last season was a massive disappointment for the organization. But I believe they will bounce back this season, with an improved roster and renewed focus. I have them making it to the Western Conference Finals. The “Battle for LA” will finally happen, even if it will come a year later than expected.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Kawhi Leonard re-signs with the Clippers in the offseason.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will play a combined 126.5 (out of 144) games this season.
Prediction (45–27, 3rd in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
46–26, 3rd in West
Los Angeles Lakers
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 52–19 (1st in West, NBA Champions)
OffRtg: 111.7 (11th) | DefRtg: 106.1 (3rd) | NetRtg: 5.6 (5th) | Pace: 101.20 (11th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Dennis Schröder (trade), Montrezl Harrell (2 years, $19m), Marc Gasol, Wess Matthews, Alfonzo McKinnie (trade)
Lost: Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo
Drafted: —
Expiring: Dennis Schröder ($15.5m), Alex Caruso, Wesley Matthews, Quinn Cook, Jared Dudley, Markieff Morris
Rotation
Starters: LeBron James, Dennis Schröder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol
Bench: Alex Caruso, Talen Horton-Tucker, Wesley Matthews, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, Montrezl Harrell
Most Intriguing Lineup: LeBron James, Dennis Schröder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Anthony Davis
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Can LeBron James continue performing at a near-MVP level in year 18?
Three Things I Believe
- Barring injury, the Lakers will repeat as NBA champions this season. It’s rare to see a defending champion improve as much as the Lakers did this offseason without adding a star player to the mix. Rob Pelinka, the Lakers’ vice president of basketball operations, should be the early front runner for Executive of the Year after what he accomplished this offseason. The additions of Dennis Schröder and Montrezl Harrell will help carry the scoring load for the Lakers when either LeBron James or Anthony Davis rest, which they are likely to do early in the season given the quick turnaround from the end of last season. Marc Gasol is also an upgrade at the center position over what the Lakers had during their championship run last season (JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard). Given these additions to a roster that already includes two of the top 5 (or so) players in the league, it’s safe to say the Lakers should be heavy favorites to defend their title this season.
- Kyle Kuzma is not a lock to stay with the Lakers long term. Kuzma signed a three-year, $40m extension with the team on December 20 in the leadup to the season. The extension ties Kuzam to the organization at least through the 2022–23 season, with a player option for $14m the following season that could keep him in Los Angeles until 2024. Kuzma’s extension is on roughly the same contractual timeline as franchise cornerstones LeBron James (expiring after the 2022–23 season) and Anthony Davis (player option for 2024–25). While the Lakers could keep Kuzma in the fold through the duration of his extension, I’m not convinced they will. Kuzma is still the most valuable trade chip the Lakers have to bolster the roster should the need arise. Considering the strength of the current roster, as well as the limited value of his contract this season ($3.5m), moving Kuzma in 2020–21 is unlikely. But beginning next season, when Kuzma’s contract number jumps to $13m, I could see it happening.
- Frank Vogel deserves some Coach of the Year love. Nearly from the moment he was hired last summer, many speculated that Vogel was not going to have a long leash as head coach of the Lakers. The doubt surrounding his job status centered on two realities: (1) he was not Ty Lue, who was widely believed to be LeBron James’ preferred candidate, and (2) there were other options with head coaching experience on his coaching staff (Jason Kidd in particular). In his first season at the helm, Vogel guided the Lakers to a top-3 finish in total defensive efficiency, the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and to the franchise’s 17th NBA title. Not bad for a placeholder coach, huh? As the Lakers enter the 2020–21 season with an improved roster surrounding the best duo of star players in the league, it’s a safe bet they will be in the running to finish first in the West again this season, which should make Vogel a strong candidate for Coach of the Year honors this time around.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Anthony Davis wins Defensive Player of the Year.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Kyle Kuzma will change his hair color 5.5 times this season (regular and postseason combined).
Prediction (48–24, 1st in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
49–23, 1st in West
Phoenix Suns
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 34–39 (10th in West)
OffRtg: 111.3 (12th) | DefRtg: 110.8 (17th) | NetRtg: 0.5 (14th) | Pace: 101.74 (9th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Chris Paul (trade), Jae Crowder (3 years, $29m), Langston Galloway, Abdel Nader (trade)
Lost: Kelly Oubre, Ricky Rubio, Aron Baynes, Frank Kaminsky, Ty Jerome
Drafted: Jalen Smith
Expiring: E’Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, Abdel Nadar
Rotation
Starters: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton
Bench: Jevon Carter, Langston Galloway, Cameron Johnson, Dario Saric, Jalen Smith, Damian Jones, Frank Kaminsky
Most Intriguing Lineup: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton
Biggest Question in 2020–21
How much will Chris Paul raise this team’s ceiling?
Three Things I Believe
- The Suns are a lock for the playoffs. The last time the Suns made the postseason was the 2009–10 season with Steve Nash still on the team. For most of the 2010s, Phoenix was one of three franchises serving as the butt of every NBA joke (the Lakers and Knicks being the other two). The Suns posted a combined record of 309–489, including 5 seasons with 50+ losses, since their last playoff appearance, and have cycled through coaches (7, including 2 interims) and front offices (3 GMs) along their mediocre way. All of that changes this season. The Suns — led by Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and newly acquired point guard Chris Paul — will finally break through and return to the playoffs in 2020–21. (Well, at least to the play-in tournament.)
- Deandre Ayton will be the X-factor to the Suns’ season. Generally speaking, you know what you are going to get from players like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and, to a lesser extent, Jae Crowder. Beyond those three, however, the Suns have a lot of young, unproven guys who they will need to play meaningful roles with higher expectations than they have had before. Among this bunch of younger players, Deandre Ayton is the most likely to determine how high the Suns’ ceiling will be this season. Ayton came on strong in the final months of last year’s regular season before it was abruptly halted in March due to the global pandemic. From January through the end of February, Ayton averaged 20 points (shooting 56.1% from the field) and 12 rebounds during that stretch of 26 games. He also showed improved defense (something he really struggled with as a rookie) throughout his second season. As the Suns push for the playoffs, Ayton’s continued development will likely determine how much noise they can make in the postseason. The Suns could be matched up with some of the better bigs in the league (Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, etc.) once the playoffs roll around. Ayton could ultimately decide how far they go when they get there.
- Following up on the last point, I am concerned by Phoenix’s frontcourt depth behind Ayton. The Suns have legitimate depth at every position on the roster — except center. Damien Jones and the newly returned Frank Kaminsky are the only options with NBA experience on the roster, but neither has made much of an impact so far in their careers. Another option when Ayton sits is to give minutes to rookie Jalen Smith, who has the potential to be a reliable rim protector as he develops. The Suns could look to add a more proven backup center via trade before the deadline, but they do not have many viable options in terms of expiring contracts to package in a trade. If they go the trade route, they will need to dip into their draft assets. I think Dewayne Dedmon, who is currently a free agent, could be a perfect guy to add to the mix in a backup role.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Devin Booker finishes this season in the top 3 in scoring.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Devin Booker will appear in 1.5 of Chris Paul’s State Farm commercials this season.
Prediction (42–30, 6th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
39–33, 7th in West
Sacramento Kings
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 31–41 (12th in West)
OffRtg: 109.5 (18th) | DefRtg: 111.4 (19th) | NetRtg: -1.9 (21st) | Pace: 99.60 (19th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Hassan Whiteside, Glenn Robinson III, Monte McNair (GM)
Lost: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Alex Len, Kent Bazemore, Harry Giles, Vlade Divac (finally!)
Drafted: Tyrese Haliburton, Rober Woodard, Jahmi’us Ramsey
Expiring: Nemanja Bjelica ($7m), Jabari Parker ($6.5m), Richaun Holmes ($5m), Hassan Whiteside
Rotation
Starters: De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes
Bench: Cory Joseph, Tyrese Haliburton, Glenn Robinson III, Nemanja Bjelica, Hassan Whiteside
Most Intriguing Lineup: De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley III
Biggest Questions in 2020–21
Can Marvin Bagley III stay healthy?
Three Things I Believe
- A team with De’Aaron Fox running the show should never finish lower than 15th in the league in Pace, especially when you factor in some of the other players they have on the roster (Bagley, Buddy Hield, and Tyrese Haliburton). A Kings lineup featuring Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Barnes, and Bagley will be dynamite if they can get into transition often enough. I hope head coach Luke Walton allows Fox to pick up the pace in 2020–21.
- The Kings got the steal of the draft in Tyrese Haliburton. The 12th overall pick in November’s draft, Haliburton will cushion the blow of losing Bogdan Bogdanovic in free agency and could also make Buddy Hield expendable in the long term. Haliburton is a perfect backcourt mate for Fox. He is more than capable as a secondary playmaker, he can knock down catch-and-shoot opportunities, he can create offense both for himself and his teammates off the dribble, and he is a solid defender. I believe Haliburton has a shot to be a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate.
- Buddy Hield and Nemanja Bjelica are two players the Kings could move by the trade deadline. Teams preparing for the playoffs often look to the bottom feeders of the league to fill their holes before the home stretch of the season. The Kings, who are likely to finish somewhere in the bottom three among teams in the West, are positioned to be an attractive trade partner because they have something teams are always looking to improve for the playoffs: shooting. Bjelica is a highly effective stretch four, averaging just a shade under 40% from three for his career, and is on an easily movable expiring contract ($7.15m), which should make him the top trade candidate on Sacramento’s roster. Hield is an elite shooter (41.1% from three for his career) capable of knockdown catch-and-shoot opportunities or pull-up jumpers at a high clip. His contract (entering the first year of a four-year, $94m deal) is an obstacle, but it’s not an albatross, either. The Kings are building for the future, so they might as well swap veterans like Bjelica and Hield for younger players or, more importantly, draft assets. I believe they will deal a few players away by the deadline.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Head coach Luke Walton will be on the hot seat after this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Marvin Bagley III will play in 56.5 games this season.
Prediction (31–41, 14th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
28–44, 13th in West
