2020–21 NBA Season Previews: Part 2
Part 2 of Kevin’s 2020–21 NBA Season Previews takes us to the southern United States, the land of grits and sweet tea, of Waffle House and Whataburger, as we take a look at the Southeast and Southwest divisions.
If you haven’t already, please check out Part 1 for summary of why I decided on this particular format By way of reminder, so you won’t have to scour through all three parts to track how I predict these teams will finish the season, here’s how I see the regular season playing out:
East: 1. Milwaukee Bucks, 2. Boston Celtics, 3. Miami Heat, 4. Philadelphia 76ers, 5. Brooklyn Nets, 6. Toronto Raptors, 7. Indiana Pacers, 8. Atlanta Hawks, 9. Washington Wizards, 10. Orlando Magic, 11. Chicago Bulls, 12. Charlotte Hornets, 13. Cleveland Cavaliers, 14. Detroit Pistons, 15. New York Knicks.
West: 1. Los Angeles Lakers, 2. Denver Nuggets, 3. Los Angeles Clippers, 4. Dallas Mavericks, 5. Portland Trail Blazers, 6. Utah Jazz, 7. Phoenix Suns, 8. Memphis Grizzlies, 9. Golden State Warriors, 10. New Orleans Pelicans, 11. San Antonio Spurs, 12. Houston Rockets, 13. Sacramento Kings, 14. Minnesota Timberwolves, 15. Oklahoma City Thunder.
Be on the lookout for Part 3 of my season previews. They will go live in the coming days.
Now, let’s turn to the Southeast and Southwest divisions.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 20–47 (14th in East)
OffRtg: 107.0 (25th) | DefRtg: 114.4 (28th) | NetRtg: -7.4 (28th) | Pace: 103.28 (7th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Danilo Gallinari (3 years, $61.5M), Bogdan Bogdanovic (4 years, $72M), Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, Solomon Hill, Tony Snell
Lost: Dewayne Dedmon, Jeff Teague, DeAndre Bembry, Skal Labissiere, Vince Carter (pour one out for the legend)
Drafted: Onyeka Okongwu, Skylar Mays
Expiring: Tony Snell, Solomon Hill
Rotation
Starters: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela
Bench: Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, Danilo Gallinari, Solomon Hill, Onyeka Okongwu
Most Intriguing Lineup: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish, Danilo Gallinari, John Collins
Biggest Question for 2020–21
The offense should take care of itself, but can the defense reach at least league average?
Three Things I Believe
- The Hawks could have a top 10 offense this season. The Hawks were among the more active teams in free agency last month — that tends to happen when your team has the most cap space available in the market — and boy, did they ever spend it on offense! First they signed unrestricted free agent Danilo Gallinari for three years and $61.5m, then they added restricted free agent Bodgan Bogdanovic on a four-year, $72m deal. Both are prolific offensive weapons who will add shooting and playmaking to a team that has been forced to rely heavily on its 22-year-old budding star, Trae Young, through his first two seasons. Interesting note: Last season the Hawks had the rare distinction of being one of the heaviest volume three-point shooting teams in the league (36.1 attempts per game, 8th highest) while also being the worst at converting those attempts (33.3% as a team). With Bogdanovic and Gallinari in the mix, that average should quickly improve this season. The Hawks enter the 2020–21 season with six players on the roster who have shot over 35% from three for their careers (Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter, Hunter, Collins, and the newly added Tony Snell) and two who could easily reach that career mark this season (Young and Reddish). I expect these offseason additions, together with Young’s continued development, will raise the Hawks all the way to the upper third of the league in offense.
- The next step in Trae Young’s development will be learning to play more off the ball. Since he entered the league in 2018, few teams have required as much from a single player offensively than the Hawks have of Young. Young’s usage rate for his rookie season (‘18-’19) was 27.7%, ranking him 23rd among players in the league. Last season, that number skyrocketed to 34.9% (4th highest in the league). At least part of the reason why the Hawks have needed the ball in Young’s hands so much over his first two seasons is that the roster has lacked reliable secondary creators, meaning that Young always had to be ready to salvage possessions at a moment’s notice. More facilitators on the roster this season should free him up to play more off the ball, where he has been effective in catch-and-shoot situations (career 42% shooting) even though he hasn’t had many so far in his career (career 9.85% of his shots). Playing Young off the ball will also keep teams from double teaming him as often.
- The key to Atlanta’s defense rests on Clint Capela and the continued development of Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter. For how potent the Hawks offense could be this season, the team will need its defense to take a major step forward to make the playoffs. Defense is paramount for any roster built around a diminutive player like Young, who for all he brings on the offensive side, is likely never going to be much more than a minus on that end. That’s why general manager Travis Schlenk began investing heavily in the defensive end last season, drafting two players who project as versatile wings in the league (Hunter and Reddish) and trading for a defensive center to anchor Atlanta’s unit (Capela). Hunter and Reddish will be heavily relied on this season to defend the better wing players in the league while also providing cover for Young and some of the newer offensive-minded players (Gallinari and Bogdanovic). If the Hawks can reach the top 18 in defensive efficiency, they should make the playoffs.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Trae Young leads the league in assists this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Trae Young will nutmeg 8.5 unsuspecting defenders this season.
Prediction (35–37, 9th in East)
34–38, 8th in the East
Charlotte Hornets
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 23–42 (9th in East)
OffRtg: 105.9 (28th) | DefRtg: 112.8 (25th) | NetRtg: -7.0 (27th) | Pace: 96.24 (30th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Gordon Hayward (4 years, $120M)
Lost: Dwayne Bacon, Nicolas Batum (finally!)
Drafted: LaMelo Ball, Vernon Carey, Nick Richards, Grant Riller
Expiring: Cody Zeller ($15.4m), Bismack Biyombo ($3.5m)
Rotation
Starters: Devonte’ Graham, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Cody Zeller
Bench: LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin, Jalen McDaniels, Miles Bridges, Bismack Biyambo
Most Intriguing Lineup: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, PJ Washington
Biggest Question for 2020–21
How long until James Borrego turns the keys over and makes LaMelo Ball the starting point guard?
Three Things I Believe
- Gordon Hayward is not the second coming of Nicolas Batum. When news broke of Hayward agreeing to a four-year, $120m deal with the Hornets this offseason, it sent shockwaves through the NBA world — and not in a particularly good way. Many saw what they believed to be a bad contract and drew an immediate connection to another disastrous deal in Charlotte Hornets recent history: Nicolas Batum. Batum landed with the Hornets long term in the free agent bonanza of 2015, signing a five-year, $120m extension that has since looked like one of the worst contracts of the past decade. While there is a somewhat eerie symmetry between the two in terms of the contract’s total value, you can’t realistically compare them as players. Even though Hayward is coming off a three-year stretch in Boston derailed by injuries (he only played 125 total games), he is a considerably better player than Batum. Hayward may never make another All-Star team again, but I think he is a much more proven player and will be a valuable leader for the Hornets.
- The Hornets are precariously thin in the frontcourt. In the leadup to the NBA draft, reports swirled indicating the Hornets were looking to address the center position with the third overall pick, and were even considering moving up to the first overall pick to land James Wiesman. No trade materialized, and after Wiseman was selected one spot before their pick the Hornets took LaMelo Ball as the best player available on the board. Ball should give the Hornets a clearer identity on the offensive end. What he can’t offer, however, is depth to the frontcourt. The Hornets used the second round of last month’s draft trying to address their needs in the unit, drafting Vernon Carey out of Duke and acquiring former Kentucky big man Nick Richards in a trade with the Pelicans, but Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyambo remain the only proven options on the roster. If either Zeller or Biyambo have to miss time, options will be stretched thin. PJ Washington was good enough to land on an All-Rookie team in his first campaign, but it’s probably asking too much of him to fill in at the five unless the opponent is going small. Carey and/or Richards could be in line for minutes early if injuries turn things sideways in the frontcourt rotation.
- Minutes featuring the three-man lineup of LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, and Miles Bridges will make the Hornets a must-watch team on NBA League Pass. Saddle up for an avalanche of highlight reel alley-oops, ill-advised heat checks, jaw-dropping passes, and facepalm-inducing decision making when this trio takes the floor. Ball and Monk aren’t knock-down shooters, but you’d never guess that watching either one play. Both are willing to hoist them up without a second thought even if a better option is developing in normal the flow of the offense. What intrigues me most about this unit is the potential of Miles Bridges playing alongside these two in transition. Bridges is an explosive dunker who should get plenty of opportunities to play above the rim given LaMelo Ball’s transcendent passing and willingness to throw lobs from the halfcourt line. My dream scenario for the Hornets is LaMelo pushing the pace in transition with options either to throw a lob to Bridges or hit Monk in the corner for an open three. Get your popcorn ready!
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Devonte’ Graham makes way for LaMelo Ball in the starting lineup this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
The Ball-Monk combination will give head coach James Borrego 4.5 migraines this season.
Prediction (24–48, 12th in East)
25–47, 12th in East
Miami Heat
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 44–29 (5th in East, Eastern Conference Champions)
OffRtg: 111.9 (7th) | DefRtg: 109.3 (12th) | NetRtg: 2.7 (7th) | Pace: 98.70 (27th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Avrey Bradley, Maurice Harkless
Lost: Jae Crowder, Derrick Jones Jr.
Drafted: Precious Achiuwa
Expiring: Kelly Olynyk ($12.5m), Maurice Harkless ($3.6m), Udonis Haslem
Rotation
Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Maurice Harkless, Bam Adebayo
Bench: Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Avery Bradley, Andre Iguodala, Precious Achiuwa, Kelly Olynyk, Myers Leonard
Most Intriguing Lineup: Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala, Bam Adebayo
Biggest Question for 2020–21
Who fills the Jae Crowder role this year?
Three Things I Believe
- The Heat need to find a ‘Plan B’ to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Aside from the Dallas Mavericks, no team was more disappointed with Giannis’s decision to re-sign with the Bucks than the Heat, who spent the last two seasons preparing to take a run at the reigning two-time MVP in the summer of 2021. Now, with the dream of Giannis gone, what will Pat Riley and the Heat do? In the short term, Miami does have some attractive young assets (Herro, Robinson, and Nunn), Kelly Olynyk’s $12.5m expiring contract, and plenty of future cap space to absorb a player already signed to a long-term contract in a trade. After returning the most important pieces from last year’s squad who earned a trip to the NBA Finals, I expect the Heat will regroup and try to swing a deal or two before the deadline to make another push for the Finals this year.
- Head coach Erik Spoelstra will continue to experiment with the starting lineup throughout the regular season. Of all the teams in the NBA, none is more difficult to forecast from a lineup perspective than the Heat, who have shown a willingness to keep the starting unit fluid in the past. Case in point: Goran Dragic, who only started 3 of 59 regular season games last season before he assumed the starting role through the playoffs (started 16 of 17 games). The Heat have a remarkably versatile roster. They can play big when they need to, partnering Bam Adebayo with a floor-spacing big (Leonard or Oylnyk). They can keep Bam at the five and surround him and Jimmy Butler with shooters (Herro, Robinson, Nunn). They can even play small with Bam at the five and some combination of Butler, Andre Iguodala, or Maurice Harkless at the four. Erik Spoelstra is one of the best and more creative coaches in the league, so expect the Heat to use their versatility to experiment throughout the regular season.
- Precious Achiuwa could be the next in a long line of hidden gems the Heat have unearthed in the draft. The Heat have arguably been the best team in the league when it comes to finding high-level contributing players either at the end or outside of the lottery. Just consider the players they’ve added in recent years: Bam Adebayo (14th pick in 2017), Tyler Herro (13th pick in 2019), Duncan Robinson (undrafted; joined team in 2018), and Kendrick Nunn (undrafted; joined team in 2019). That’s four players who played significant minutes for a team that just made the NBA Finals, and none of them cracked the top 12 in their respective drafts. This year the Heat selected Achiuwa, a 6-foot-9 energizer who can score, defend multiple positions, and offer some rim protection (1.9 blocks per game in college), out of Memphis with the 20th overall pick. With Jae Crowder no longer with the team, Achiuwa could have a role to play as a defender and rebounder for the Heat this season.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Duncan Robinson leads the league in three-point shooting percentage this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
1.5 of Jimmy Butler’s teammates will become official investors in his business venture ‘Big Face Coffee’ this season.
Prediction (41–31, 4th in East)
45–27, 3rd in East
Orlando Magic
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 33–40 (8th in the East, lost to MIL in the 1st round of the playoffs)
OffRtg: 107.9 (23rd) | DefRtg: 109.2 (11th) | NetRtg: -1.3 (19th) | Pace: 98.99 (26th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Dwayne Bacon
Lost: DJ Augistin, Wesley Iwundu
Drafted: Cole Anthony
Expiring: Evan Fournier ($17.15m), James Ennis ($3.3m), Khem Birch ($3m)
Rotation
Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis III, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Bench: Michael Carter-Williams, Cole Anthony, Dwayne Bacon, Terrace Ross, Chuma Okeke, Khem Birch, Mo Bamba
Most Intriguing Lineup: Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Terrance Ross, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Biggest Question for 2019–20
How can the Magic take a step forward offensively this season?
Three Things I Believe
- Orlando keeps the band together… at least until the offseason. You have to feel like the Magic have reached a point where they at least need to entertain the possibility of making changes. Right now they are trapped in the proverbial “no man’s land” of the NBA — good enough to be in the mix for the lowest playoff seeds in the Eastern Conference, but lacking a clear path out of the first round. In recent years they have added a few pieces that either have shown promise (Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac) or at least have potential to do so (Cole Anthony). But blowing their opportunities higher in the lottery (selecting Mo Bamba number 5 overall in 2018) and in free agency (Al-Farouq Aminu in 2019) have considerably limited their ceiling going forward. Among the core four of Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Terrance Ross, and Evan Fournier, only Forunier is in a position to depart this season. I think it is time for the Magic to commit at least to a soft reset, moving on from guys like Ross, Fournier, and possibly Gordon, and maybe even bringing in a new coach to replace Steve Clifford and breathe some life into the franchise. Time will tell if they ultimately decide to go this route, but don’t expect any drastic changes this season.
- Markelle Fultz is a great story — and is becoming an even better player. One of the more befuddling situations in recent memory, Fultz went from number 1 overall pick to not being able to shoot to double-pumping free throws to being traded in the first 20 months of his career. It was a whirlwind to behold, and I’m sure it was much worse for Fultz to experience personally. The good news is that he has apparently begun to find himself again since joining the Magic in February of 2019. In his first season in Orlando, Fultz earned the starting point guard role and averaged a career high 12.1 points (on 46.5% shooting from the field) and 5.1 assists in 27.7 minutes over the course of 60 games. He may never become an All-Star or fully escape the weight of being a number 1 overall pick who didn’t pan out as expected, but Fultz is well on his way to becoming a steady player in this league who could be around for another decade — or more. That’s something worth celebrating.
- Jonathan Isaac will be a huge loss for the Magic this season — one they won’t be able to overcome. Want to summarize the Orlando Magic in as simple and uninspiring a way as possible? Here’s how you do it: The Magic are a team whose best player is a skinny, 6-foot-11, defensive specialist wing who can’t seem to stay healthy. And that’s exactly what Jonathan Isaac is. Since he was selected with the number 6 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Isaac has only played 136 of a possible 246 games, with injuries derailing multiple seasons. Most recently, Isaac suffered a torn ACL during the seeding games in the Orlando restart in August, and now he will miss the entire 2020–21 season. The loss of Isaac will be difficult for the Magic to overcome this season because they don’t have anyone on the roster who possess similar length or defensive ability at the wing position. Isaac is truly an elite defender, a player who can guard multiple positions and has the length to wreak havoc for opposing players (2.3 blocks per game last season). James Ennis III, Chuma Okeke (a rookie), and what’s left of Al-Farouq Aminu will look to fill what they can of Isaac’s role in his absence. Expect the Magic to take a step back defensively this season.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Cole Anthony finishes top 4 in Rookie of the Year voting.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
The average Magic fan will yawn 3.5 times per game this season watching this team play.
Prediction (36–36, 7th in East)
32–40, 10th in East
Washington Wizards
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 25–47 (10th in East, due to Bubble performance)
OffRtg: 110.2 (16th) | DefRtg: 114.7 (29th) | NetRtg: -4.5 (25th) | Pace: 103.38 (5th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Russell Westbrook (trade), Robin Lopez, Raul Neto
Lost: John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Shabazz Napier, Ian Mahinmi (finally!)
Drafted: Deni Avdija, Cassius Winston
Expiring: Robin Lopez ($7.3m), Ish Smith ($6m), Raul Neto
Rotation
Starters: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Bench: Ish Smith, Raul Neto, Troy Brown Jr., Deni Avdija, Davis Bertans, Robin Lopez, Moritz Wagner
Most Intriguing Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Davis Bertans, Thomas Bryant
Biggest Question for 2020–21
Can the Wizards actually defend?
Three Things I Believe
- Russell Westbrook will become the tone-setter for the Wizards organization. Make no mistake: Russell Westbrook is out for blood this season. The 2016–17 league MVP, Westbrook arrived with the Wizards in November after a single lackluster season playing for the Rockets. This offseason he decided he didn’t want to play off the ball and ultimately demanded a trade out of Houston. In Washington, Westbrook figures to resume a similar role to the one he had as a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder through the first eleven seasons of his career — a high usage initiator and the clearcut vocal leader of the team. For all the warts people point to in his game, Westbrook’s teammates have consistently maintained that they have loved playing alongside him in the past. He brings an infectious energy night in and night out, which can have a galvanizing effect on the rest of the roster, from starters to the guys on the end of the bench. I fully expect the Wizards will feed off of Westbrook this season and play with more energy and effort throughout the 2020–21 season.
- Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook should fit together seamlessly. Beal and long-time fellow backcourt mate John Wall had a tremendous run together since 2013, a stretch that included four playoff trips and falling one game shy of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017. Now, that era of Wizards basketball is over. Wall’s replacement, Westbrook, should actually fit better alongside Beal than Wall himself ever did. In addition to being a better overall player than Wall, Westbrook brings a degree of professionalism and attentiveness that Wall seemed to lack — traits that Beal shares in common with his new teammate. Beal’s shooting should help him play effectively off of Westbrook, punishing opposing defenses that collapse when Westbrook drives and leave Beal open to spot up on the perimeter. Beal also made strides last season in his playmaking, which should also allow Westbrook to work off the ball and attack the glass throughout the season. I think Westbrook and Beal will be one of the top 3 backcourt pairings in the league this season.
- The young Wizards need to be ready to take a step forward this season. When a team trades for Westbrook, they are not looking to waste time before pushing for the playoffs. The Wizards, with their newly assembled pair of All-Stars in the backcourt, will look to make their first playoff appearance since the 2017–18 season, and they will need some of their younger players to contribute immediately to do so. In my view, the four young players who will decide how far the Wizards will be able to go this season are Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr., and rookie Denvi Avdija. If these four can make noticeable improvements this season, the Wizards could reach as high as the 7 or 8 seed.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Russell Westbrook averages a triple double in the regular season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Moritz Wagner will draw 32.5 charges this season.
Prediction (25–47, 11th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)
33–39, 9th in East
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 43–32 (7th in West, lost to LAC in first round of playoffs)
OffRtg: 115.9 (1st) | DefRtg: 111.2 (18th) | NetRtg: 4.8 (6th) | Pace: 99.89 (18th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Josh Richardson (trade), James Johnson (trade), Wesley Iwundu
Lost: Seth Curry, Justin Jackson, Delon Wright, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Drafted: Josh Green, Tyrell Terry, Tyler Bey
Expiring: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($18.9m), James Johnson ($16m), Boban Marjanovic
Rotation
Starters: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell
Bench: Trey Burke, Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Willie Cayley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic
Most Intriguing Lineup: Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maci Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Can Porzingis remain healthy enough to be a reliable second star alongside Luka Doncic? And if not, where does Dallas go from here?
Three Things I Believe
- Luka Doncic needs to attack the basket more. The hard truth is that although Doncic has an effective step-back jump shot, he still has a ways to go as a shooter. Through his first two seasons in the NBA, Doncic has averaged 32.1% from three-point range on a high rate of 8 attempts per game. Because he lacks blazing speed to get around defenders with ease, Doncic can be prone to settling for perimeter jump shots, particularly when he gets a big switched on to him. This season, I’d like to see Doncic focus more on getting into the paint and attacking the rim than settling for so many perimeter jumpers. Doncic is his most effective closer to the basket where he shoots 62.2% from within 8 feet. Factor in his otherworldly vision and passing ability and you have the recipe for Doncic to create plenty of wide-open shots for his teammates when he attacks the basket. More of that please!
- Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is off the table as a free agent target, I could see the Mavericks turning to the trade market to improve their team this season and beyond. The Mavericks were one of the few teams doing everything possible to maintain enough cap space to chase free agents in what was supposed to be a strong class next offseason. Many pundits were drooling over a possible partnership between Doncic and two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, but now those dreams are officially over, and the Mavericks will need to look elsewhere as they continue to build a contender around their young franchise cornerstone. One possible avenue the Mavericks have is adding pieces via the trade market. Dallas has two highly tradable expiring contracts on the roster — Tim Hardwaray Jr. ($18.9m) and James Johnson ($16m) — that they could pair with future draft picks to add another valuable rotation piece to the mix. I think the trade market is a great opportunity for Dallas to take another step forward in the Western Conference.
- The Mavericks should be very concerned about the health of Kristaps Porzingis. Dallas’ 25-year-old co-star suffered a torn meniscus in the 2020 playoffs, his second major knee surgery (the other being a torn ACL) in his four-year NBA career. When healthy, Porzingis has proven he can be a top 20 player in the league. His combination of size (7-foot-3), shooting ability (career 35.8% from three-point range), and defense make him one of the more unique talents in the whole league and a perfect partner for Doncic. Unfortunately, the track record of players Porzingis’ size battling knee injuries is not very encouraging. If he can stay healthy, the Mavericks will have two stars capable of contending for titles.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Luka Doncic wins the MVP this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Luka Doncic will rip 2.5 jerseys in anger this season.
Prediction (42–30, 5th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
43–29, 4th in the West
Houston Rockets
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 44–28 (4th in West, lost to LAL in second round of playoffs)
OffRtg: 112.5 (6th) | DefRtg: 109.8 (15th) | NetRtg: 2.7 (8th) | Pace: 104.04 (2nd)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: John Wall (trade), Christian Wood (3 years, $41m), DeMarcus Cousins, Sterling Brown, Rafael Stone (GM), Steven Silas (coach)
Lost: Russell Westbrook, Austin Rivers, Mike D’Antoni (coach), Daryl Morey
Drafted: Kenyon Martin Jr.
Expiring: PJ Tucker ($7.9m), Ben McLemore, David Nwaba, Sterling Brown, DeMarcus Cousins
Rotation
Starters: John Wall, James Harden, Danuel House, PJ Tucker, Christian Wood
Bench: David Nwaba, Ben McLemore, Jae’Sean Tate, Sterling Brown, Eric Gordon, Bruno Caboclo, DeMarcus Cousins
Most Intriguing Lineup: John Wall, James Harden, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, Christian Wood
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Assuming the Rockets trade James Harden, what can they get in return?
Three Things I Believe
- Even if the Rockets build up an impressive record in the first half of the season and ultimately wait until the trade deadline to deal James Harden, they will fall out of contention before season’s end. This is arguably my boldest take heading into the season so let me explain my position a bit. The West has been the deeper, more competitive conference in the league for years (if not decades). This season the West will have 13–14 teams (Oklahoma City and possibly Sacramento being the exceptions) actively jockeying for the postseason, leaving little margin for error or time to regroup for teams dealing with star players dealing with injuries or demanding to be traded. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they fall into the latter category. James Harden wants out of Houston. He’s personally made his demands known to the Rockets front office and his actions leading up to the season — missing the start of training camp so that he could party with friends in Atlanta and Las Vegas — have only served to confirm he has no desire to remain with the team long term. A player of Harden’s caliber, even if he is brooding internally, can carry a team into the playoffs, but the rest of Houston’s roster is riddled with question marks: How much of an impact will Christian Wood bring in year 1? What will John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins look like coming off of devastating injuries? What will new head coach Stephen Silas bring to the mix? Remove Harden from the equation — which I think will ultimately happen — and this team could easily fall out of the playoff mix, regardless of what pieces they get in return in a trade for him.
- Christian Wood is set for liftoff. Wood was a revelation for the Detroit Pistons in the second half of last season. Over the final five weeks of the 2019–20 regular season Wood’s production took a dramatic leap forward, averaging 22.9 points on 57.1% shooting (41.25% from three) and 9.2 rebounds in 34.1 minutes per game. What remains to be seen is whether that production will carry over to his time with Houston. Wood brings the offensive versatility that should pair well with James Harden, assuming Harden remains with the team. He can score from all three levels and brings an element that was foreign to the Rockets after last season’s trade deadline: size. At 6-foot-10, Wood’s size and rebounding will address the shortcoming of last season’s playoff roster than was continually exploited by opponents. Since John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins will have an adjustment period as they return to the court after lengthy absences, Wood should be well positioned to have a significant impact for the Rockets from the jump.
- The Rockets need to diversify their offensive scheme. Houston has been at the epicenter of the analytics revolution in the NBA over the last decade. Under former general manager Daryl Morey and head coach Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets’ offense was characterized by a near slavish devotion to the most efficient shots in basketball: layups, free throws, and three-pointers. However, what set Hourston’s approach apart from other analytic-driven teams was its dependence on Harden, one of the most gifted offensive forces the league has ever seen, who dominated the ball since his arrival in 2013. The additions of head coach Stephen Silas, as well as players like Christian Wood and John Wall, should mean Harden-ball will be replaced with a more diversified offensive attack.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Rockets miss the playoffs this season.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
1.5 of the Harden-Gordon-Tucker trio will be traded before the deadline.
Prediction (43–29, 4th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
32–40, 12th in West
Memphis Grizzlies
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 34–39 (9th in West)
OffRtg: 108.7 (21st) | DefRtg: 109.7 (14th) | NetRtg: -1.0 (17th) | Pace: 103.31 (6th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: —
Lost: Josh Jackson, Anthony Tolliver, Jordan Bell
Drafted: Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman
Expiring: Gorgui Dieng ($17.28m)
Rotation
Starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Justise Winslow, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jonas Valanciunas
Bench: Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Desmond Bane, John Konchar, Gorgui Dieng
Most Intriguing Lineup: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Justise Winslow, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke
Biggest Question in 2020–21
What will Justise Winslow add to this team and how well will he fit alongside Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.?
Three Things I Believe
- Ja Morant is a superstar in the making. The number 2 overall pick from the 2019 draft, Morant burst onto the scene last season as the starting point guard for the Grizzlies. In his rookie campaign, Morant averaged 17.8 points (a team high) on 47.7% shooting from the field (33.5% from three), 7.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds in 31 minutes per game en route to Rookie of the Year honors. Morant’s combination of highlight reel passing and fearless attacking style make him one of the more exciting young guards in the league, as well as the main reason most casual fans will flip on a Memphis game on League Pass on a random Wednesday night in January. After all, you never know when he is going to drive full force into the lane for a violent throw-down, leaping over some poor, unsuspecting help-side defender who didn’t have the good sense to get out of the way. What I’d like to see this season is for Morant to show improvement in his outside shooting. Add a reliable perimeter jumper to an already impressive skill set and Morant could easily become one of the best point guards in the league over the next ten years.
- Memphis really needs Morant’s co-stars, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Justise Winslow, to stay healthy. The Grizzlies have the talent to earn a playoff spot in the competitive Western Conference this season, but they won’t be able to reach their potential if Jackson and Winslow continue to miss time. Jackson has yet to play 60 games in a season through his first two years in the league. Winslow, who has yet to even play a game for the team since the Grizzlies acquired him in a trade last season, is also no stranger to injury. Through his first five seasons in the league, Winslow has played fewer than 20 games in a season twice (2016–17 and last season). The Morant-Jackson-Winslow trio is an intriguing foundation for the next era of Grizzlies basketball… but the team’s ceiling will remain modest if two-thirds of them can’t reliably stay on the court. (Winslow’s health could also determine what the team chooses to do about his $13m club option for 2021–22.)
- The Grizzlies should find a way to turn Gorgui Deing’s $17.28m expiring contract into long-term assets. A member of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the time, Deing inked a 4-year, $62.8m deal in October of 2016 before the team ultimately traded him to Memphis last season at the deadline. Deing is not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination; he’s just not a player you want making over $15m per year if your goal is winning at a reasonably high level. A $17.28m expiring contract could be an attractive trade chip, and I think the Grizzlies should try to move Deing if the right opportunity presents itself.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: Ja Morant is an All-Star snub this season, even if he has a better statistical year than some of the other guards in the West.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Dillon Brooks, a guy who is never bashful when given the opportunity to hoist one up, will take 1.5 Kobe Bryant-caliber YOLO shots per game this season.
Prediction (34–38, 12th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
38–34, 8th in West
New Orleans Pelicans
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 30–42 (13th in West)
OffRtg: 110.5 (15th) | DefRtg: 111.8 (21st) | NetRtg: -1.3 (20th) | Pace: 103.89 (4th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Eric Bledsoe (trade), Steven Adams (trade; signed 2 year, $35m extension), Willy Hernangomez, Wenyen Gabriel, Stan Van Gundy (coach)
Lost: Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors, Jahlil Okafor, E’Twaun Moore, Alvin Gentry (coach)
Drafted: Kira Lewis Jr.
Expiring: JJ Redick ($13m), Willy Hernangomez
Rotation
Starters: Lonzo Ball, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Steven Adams
Bench: Kira Lewis Jr., Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, JJ Redick, Nicolo Melli, Jaxson Hayes
Most Intriguing Lineup: Kira Lewis Jr., Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Will the Pelicans have enough shooting around Zion Williamson?
Three Things I Believe
- The Pelicans’ season hinges on the health and availability of Zion Williamson. The two centerpieces of the Pelicans roster are Williamson and Brandon Ingram, and Williamson is easily the one who will have a great impact on the team’s ceiling. Williamson was limited due to injury in his rookie campaign, playing only 24 games and having to wait until January 22 to make his highly anticipated debut. By that point of the season the Pelicans had a 17–29 record. Once Williamson joined the fray, they managed to go 11–9 before the suspension of the season on March 11. Williamson has a rare blend of size and athleticism to go with his skills as a playmaker and driver. When he was on the court as a rookie he was an incredibly efficient player, averaging 22.5 points on 58.3% shooting from the floor and posting a whopping 59.2 eFG%. The roster the Pelicans have assembled this season, which includes the continued development of reigning Most Improved Player winner Brandon Ingram, should be able to steady the ship if Williamson misses games this season. However, I am not convinced the Pelicans can seriously push for the playoffs if Zion misses long stretches of time due to injury.
- The Pelicans starting five has the potential to be one of the better defensive units in the league. The newly revamped starting five has some new faces this season — Eric Beldsoe and Steven Adams, both of whom were acquired in a string of trades that send Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee — who will join Williamson, Ingram, and impending restricted free agent Lonzo Ball. The duo of Ball and Bledsoe, two high level defenders, should give the Pelicans one of the top defensive backcourts in the league. Adams is also a rugged, bruising force in the paint and around the glass; he should be a reliable anchor to the defense. For all the questions surrounding this unit, specifically in terms of spacing and reliable shooting, defense shouldn’t be one of them.
- Jaxson Hayes, in only his second season, could be on the outside looking in. Hayes was the Pelicans’ second lottery pick from the 2019 NBA Draft, selected with the eighth overall pick as a part of a draft night trade that sent De’Andre Hunter (the fourth pick) to the Atlanta Hawks. Coming out of the University of Texas, Hayes projected to be the top big man in the 2019 draft — an athletic big who would be a menace rolling to the rim on offense and protect the rim on defense (averaging 2.2 blocks per game as a freshman in college). However, he failed to carve out a meaningful role as a rookie, posting only 7.4 points and 4 rebounds, 16.9 minutes in 64 appearances in a reserve role last season. This offseason the Pelicans made a significant commitment in their center position, trading for Steven Adams and then signing him to a two-year, $35m extension. Adams is now slotted into the starting role at least for the next two to three seasons, leaving Hayes’ standing with the team in question. Hayes is only twenty years old and needs opportunities to develop. Maybe the team’s decision to acquire and extend Adams will give them the flexibility to push for the playoffs now, not feeling the need to wait on Hayes, but also not necessarily giving up on him, either. But the addition of Adams could mean Hayes already has one foot out of the door in New Orleans.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Pelicans end this season as a top 12 defense.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
Announcers for national broadcasts will comment on Zion Williamson’s weight 3.5 times per game.
Prediction (36–36, 9th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
35–37, 10th in West
San Antonio Spurs
How They Fared Last Season
Record: 32–39 (11th in West)
OffRtg: 111.7 (10th) | DefRtg: 112.6 (24th) | NetRtg: -0.9 (16th) | Pace: 101.14 (14th)
Offseason Moves
Acquired: Keita Bates-Diop
Lost: Bryn Forbes, Marco Belinelli,
Drafted: Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Quinndary Weatherspoon
Expiring: DeMar DeRozan ($27.7m), LaMarcus Aldridge ($24m), Rudy Gay ($14.5m), Patty Mills ($13.5m), Trey Lyles ($5.5m)
Rotation
Starters: Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker IV, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge
Bench: Derrick White, Patty Mills, Devin Vassell, Rudy Gay, Trey Lyles, Jacob Poeltl
Most Intriguing Lineup: Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Devin Vassell, LaMarcus Aldridge
Biggest Question in 2020–21
Can the ‘old dogs’ learn new tricks — or at least embrace a more modern style of offense?
Three Things I Believe
- What’s left of the ‘golden era’ of Spurs basketball will officially come to an end after the 2020–21 season. It’s been a truly astonishing run for the Spurs these last 23 (or so) years, but as with anything in life, all good things eventually come to an end. Gregg Popovich and Patty Mills are all that’s left from the squad that won the 2013–14 championship, the last of the five titles won by the franchise since Bill Clinton occupied the White House. Now, with veterans like LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Mills entering the final year of their contracts, the Spurs have one final run for old times’ sake before plunging more fully into what could be a lengthy rebuild. The Spurs already have some younger pieces in place — chief among them being Djounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, Jakob Poeltl, and this year’s draft picks Devin Vassell and Tre Jones — so the cupboard is totally bare. I’m interested to see how much of a role these young guys will play this season. The million dollar question that still remains unclear: Will Popovich remain in his role as the head coach of the team when this chapter closes in 2021?
- The Spurs should trade away their veterans on expiring contracts… but they won’t. The smart move for any team approaching a lengthy rebuild is to clear the deck of expiring contracts and veteran players with value in exchange for either draft capital or young players with upside. While opinions on the value of players like DeRozan, Aldridge, Mills, and Gay will vary based on who you ask, it’s reasonable to think the Spurs could add some helpful assets in return if they indeed move them by this season’s trade deadline. That’s what most teams would do. But the Spurs aren’t most teams, and they never have been. Unless they are mathematically out of playoff contention, or close to it, heading into the deadline, I think the Spurs will keep the band together and make one final push for the playoffs just in case this is Popovich chooses to ride off into the sunset after this season.
- The Spurs should continue to modernize their offense. Even if it’s true, it’s low-hanging fruit to talk about how the Spurs have stubbornly resisted the three-point revolution that has swept through the NBA in recent years, opting instead to remain one of the teams shooting the highest volume of mid-range jumpers in the league. From 2015 through the end of the 2018–19 season, the Spurs never averaged more than 25.3 three-point attempts per game. Last season, that total took a modest but encouraging bump to 28.5 attempts per game, landing the Spurs at 28th in the league for that category. With highly capable three-point shooters like Patty Mills (career 39.1%), Derrick White (36.4%), Lonnie Walker (40.5%, and Devin Vassell (college career 41.7%) on the roster, the Spurs have the weapons they need to continue expanding their offensive range this season.
Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Spurs finish the season without trading DeRozan, Aldridge, Gay, or Mills.
Over/Under I’d Love to See
DeMar DeRozan will attempt 40.5 three-pointers this season.
Prediction (35–37, 10th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)
33–39, 11th in West
