2020–21 NBA Season Previews: Part 3

Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets, United Center, circa 2015.

Here we go — Part 3 of Kevin’s NBA Season Previews for the 2020–21 season! I hope you have enjoyed the ride as much as I did, and I look forward to picking up again as the 2021–22 season rolls around.

If you haven’t already, please check out Part 1 and Part 2 to see my thoughts on the Atlantic, Pacific, Southeast, and Southwest Divisions.

For ease of use, here’s a summary of how I see both conferences playing out this season:

East: 1. Milwaukee Bucks, 2. Boston Celtics, 3. Miami Heat, 4. Philadelphia 76ers, 5. Brooklyn Nets, 6. Toronto Raptors, 7. Indiana Pacers, 8. Atlanta Hawks, 9. Washington Wizards, 10. Orlando Magic, 11. Chicago Bulls, 12. Charlotte Hornets, 13. Cleveland Cavaliers, 14. Detroit Pistons, 15. New York Knicks.

West: 1. Los Angeles Lakers, 2. Denver Nuggets, 3. Los Angeles Clippers, 4. Dallas Mavericks, 5. Portland Trail Blazers, 6. Utah Jazz, 7. Phoenix Suns, 8. Memphis Grizzlies, 9. Golden State Warriors, 10. New Orleans Pelicans, 11. San Antonio Spurs, 12. Houston Rockets, 13. Sacramento Kings, 14. Minnesota Timberwolves, 15. Oklahoma City Thunder.

Today, to wrap things up, I will turn to the NBA’s Central and Northwest divisions. Let’s get to it!

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 22–43 (11th in East)

OffRtg: 105.8 (29th) | DefRtg: 108.9 (9th) | NetRtg: -3.1 (22nd) | Pace: 100.46 (16th)

Offseason Moves

Arrived: Garrett Temple, Billy Donovan (coach), Arturas Karnisovas (VP of Basketball Operations), Marc Eversley (GM)

Departed: Kris Dunn, Shaquille Harrison, Jim Boylen (coach), the front office formerly (and not so fondly) known as GarPax

Drafted: Patrick Williams

Expiring: Otto Porter Jr. ($28.5m), Christiano Felicio ($7.5m), Garrett Temple ($4.7m), Denzel Valentine ($4.6m), Luke Kornet

Rotation

Starters: Coby White, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr.

Bench: Tomas Satoransky, Ryan Arcidiacono, Denzel Valentine, Garrett Temple, Otto Porter Jr., Chandler Hutchison, Thaddeus Young, Christiano Felicio, Daniel Gafford

Most Intriguing Lineup

Coby White

Zach LaVine

Patrick Williams

Lauri Markkanen

Daniel Gafford

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Can Billy Donovan install a system that the Bulls players can not only embrace but thrive in?

Three Things I Believe

• The Bulls need to tailor their offense around their young core of Coby White, Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., and Patrick Williams. The 2020–21 Bulls season should focus on installing the best possible system to help them (1) build for sustained, long-term success, and (2) evaluate the string of lottery picks the previous front office drafted over the last four years to see which ones will be in the organization’s plans moving forward. The biggest question marks of the four reside in Chicago’s frontcourt: Markkanen and Carter Jr. Both players have battled injuries in their early careers and not exactly lived up to the expectations that tend to go with high lottery picks. The Bulls could not reach an agreement with Markkanen on a rookie extension, so he is set to enter restricted free agency after the coming season. How Markkanen performs this season will determine if the Bulls see him as a building block for the future. Similarly, if Carter posts another lackluster season in 2020–21, he will likely be in the same position as Markkanen next offseason when he becomes eligible for his rookie extension. For the sake of the organization’s long-term future, the Bulls need to prioritize the development of their young players this season, and that needs to start with Markkanen and Carter.
• The Bulls should find a way to trade Zach LaVine. LaVine is the player with the greatest trade value on the Bulls roster, even with two years and $39m remaining on his current deal. As the uncontested number one option for the Bulls the last few seasons, LaVine has vaulted into the fringe All-Star range primarily due to his volume scoring (he’s averaged a combined 24.4 points on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.7% from three over the last two seasons). In spite of his recent production, LaVine is probably miscast in his role with the Bulls. I think a better role to maximize his impact would be as a sixth man on a contending team, which would let him feast on second unit defenses and potentially close out games as a reliable spot-up shooter. $19.5m is a lot to spend on a sixth man, so the Bulls may have to lower their expectations when it comes to what they can get in return in a trade. But I think if the right opportunity presents itself, they should be able to pry away at least a reasonably protected first round pick or a young asset to add to their rebuilding roster.
• Now we will see how good of an NBA coach Billy Donovan actually is. After an incredibly successful twenty year career as a college coach (a run that included back-to-back national titles at the University of Florida), Donovan jumped to the NBA to assume the head coaching position for the Oklahoma City Thunder beginning in the 2015–16 season. So far in his five-year NBA coaching career, Donovan has never gone through a season without a future Hall of Fame/superstar caliber player on the roster. That streak ends this season, as Donovan takes the helm of a Bulls franchise that has been adrift since trading Jimmy Butler after the 2016–17 season. Beginning this season, we will get a better sense of his coaching mettle as he moves into a developmental role for the first time in his NBA career.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: Lauri Markkanen finishes this season averaging 20 points and 8 rebounds.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

Second year backup center Daniel Gafford will average 5.4 fouls per 36 minutes this season.

Prediction (25–47, 10th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)

27–45, 11th in East

Cleveland Cavaliers

How They Fared Last Season

Record:19–46 (15th in East)

OffRtg: 106.9 (26th) | DefRtg: 114.8 (30th) | NetRtg: -7.9 (29th) | Pace: 99.17 (23rd)

Offseason Moves

Arrived: JaVale McGee (trade), Thon Maker

Departed: Tristan Thompson, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie

Drafted: Isaac Okoro

Expiring: Andre Drummond ($28.7m), Dante Exum ($9.6m), JaVale McGee ($4.2m), Matthew Dellavedova, Thon Maker, Marques Bolden

Rotation

Starters: Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Love, Andre Drummond

Bench: Matthew Dellavedova, Dante Exum, Damyeon Dotson, Kevin Porter Jr., Cedi Osman, Larry Nance Jr., JaVale McGee, Thon Maker

Most Intriguing Lineup: Darius Garland, Colin Sexton, Kevin Porter Jr., Isaac Okoro, Larry Nance Jr.

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Can Collin Sexton and Darius Garland be the backbone of the next era of Cavs basketball?

Three Things I Believe

• The Cavs have decisions to make about their frontcourt. Cleveland’s roster construction has been incongruous since LeBron James left the team in the summer of 2018. In the wake of James’ departure, the Cavs bucked conventional wisdom, rather than diving head first into another rebuild, signing Kevin Love to a four-year, $120.4m contract extension, a deal that will tie the power forward to the franchise through the 2022–23 season. In the two years since extending Love, the team has gone a combined 38–109 and added another high-priced veteran to the frontcourt, trading for Andre Drummond in February of this year. The Drummond trade did not cost the Cavs much in terms of assets — the steepest price the team had to incur was a $28.7m player option that Drummond unsurprisingly picked up in the offseason — but it did not have much of an impact on the team’s on-court performance in the short term. The Cavs do not currently have a center on their roster after the 2020–21 season, so I’m interested to see if they will attempt to address that position either by the trade deadline or in next year’s draft. I’m sure they would like to move Love, but I can’t imagine many teams will be lining up to take that contract. There is a world in which the Cavs re-sign Drummond this offseason, pairing him and Love in the Cavs frontcourt for the long haul… but who would want to see that? Not me.
• 2020–21 could be another “defense optional” season for the Cavs. Here’s an interesting factorid: The last time the Cavs finished a season not ranked in the bottom two of defensive efficiency was 2016–17. That means during their run to the NBA Finals in the 2017–18 season, they did so in spite of having the second worst defense in the regular season that year. LeBron James certainly can cover up for a lot of warts, huh? In the years since his departure, the Cavs have posted consecutive seasons as the worst defense in the league, allowing opponents a combined 115.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s over 2 points higher than the second worst defense in the league over the same stretch (Atlanta Hawks — 113.75). The good news is I don’t think the Cavs will finish in the bottom two for a fourth consecutive year. A full season with two legitimate rim protectors (Drummond and McGee) on the roster, along with Isaac Okoro, a player who many considered the best perimeter defender in this year’s draft, should raise Cleveland out of the cellar of the league’s worst defensive units. But I wouldn’t expect the Cavs to suddenly become a top 18 defense overnight or anything.
• The Cavs hit one out of the park by selecting Isaac Okoro in this year’s draft. As previously mentioned, Okoro, whom the Cavs selected with the number 5 overall pick last month, projects to be one of the top defensive prospects from this year’s draft — and that’s exactly what Cleveland needed to add to its more offensively-inclined young core. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are showing they can score at the professional level, but both have a long way to go on the defensive end of the floor. It’s at least possible they never have much of an impact on that end in their careers. Okoro is almost the complete opposite — a skilled defender who has a way to go with his shooting on the offensive end. I think Okoro was the best player the Cavs could have selected given the options available.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Sexton-Garland duo averages a combined 40 points per games this season.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

3.5 frustrated Kevin Love eyerolls per game this season.

Prediction (22–50, 14th in East according to FiveThirtyEight)

23–49, 13th in East

Detroit Pistons

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 20–46 (13th in East)

OffRtg: 108.8 (20th) | DefRtg: 112.3 (22nd) | NetRtg: -3.5 (23rd) | Pace: 97.86 (28th)

Offseason Moves

Arrived: Jerami Grant (3 years, $60m), Mason Plumlee (3 years, $25m), Josh Jackson, Jahlil Okafor, Rodney McGruder, Wayne Ellington, Delon Wright (trade), Troy Weaver (GM)

Departed: Langston Galloway, Tony Snell, Thon Maker

Drafted: Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Saben Lee

Expiring: Derrick Rose ($7.7m), Wayne Ellington

Rotation

Starters: Killian Hayes, Delon Wright, Jerami Grant, Blake Griffin, Mason Plumlee

Bench: Derrick Rose, Rodney McGruder, Svi Mykhailiuk, Wayne Ellington, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey, Sekou Doumbouya, Isaiah Stewart, Jahlil Okafor

Most Intriguing Lineup: Killian Hayes, Delon Wright, Josh Jackson, Jerami Grant, Blake Griffin

Biggest Question in 2020–21

How will Dwane Casey manage the development of his young players this season?

Three Things I Believe

• Maybe the Pistons’ offseason wasn’t as confusing as we assumed. For a team already in the early stages of a rebuild, the Pistons’ draft went about as well as you could hope for: they selected their point guard of the future (19-year-old Killian Hayes) in the mid lottery, then paired him with a frontcourt big man (Isaiah Stewart, the 16th pick) and a classic three-and-D wing (Saddiq Bey, the 19th pick) later in the first round. Those moves made logical sense. Then free agency opened and the Pistons signed a flurry of deals that left many observers scratching their heads — forward Jerami Grant (three years, $60m), center Mason Plumlee (three years, $24.6m), and to round things out, Jahlil Okafor (two years, $4m). What are the Pistons doing? many wondered as Detroit appeared to corner the market on backup centers. Oddly enough, I am not convinced their offseason was necessarily as perplexing as some made it out to be, assuming they have plans to make additional moves in the coming months. Stewart is not yet 20 years old, so he will need some time to develop before he will be ready to handle the physicality of playing near the basket in the NBA. Plumlee and Okafor will give the Pistons time to bring Stewart along slowly. At 26 years old, Jerami Grant figures to be a centerpiece for the Pistons as they move through the rebuild. He is better suited to play as a floor stretcher at the four position, so his signing could mean the team will look to move Blake Griffin if they can.
• The Pistons have two potential trade candidates on the roster this season: Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin. Of the two, Rose will be far easier to move — he’s on an expiring contract and, while he will never be quite the same explosive player he was earlier in his career, he is still a reliable player who can run an offense effectively. Rose will begin the season as the team’s backup point guard, mentoring Killian Hayes along the way, but I expect the Pistons to move him before the deadline. Griffin’s recent injury history and contract (including a $38.9m player option for 2021–22 that he is sure to pick up) make him considerably more difficult to move. But if we’ve learned anything about this league over the years, it’s that few things are impossible. I wouldn’t bet money on the Pistons finding an acceptable trade for Griffin this season, but if he can stay healthy and return at least to his 2018–19 form (averaging 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists in 75 games), I don’t think it’s out of the question.
• The Pistons could have one of the best passing frontcourts in the league this season. Griffin and Plumlee’s games share at least one similarity that often goes overlooked: both are sneaky good passers. Earlier in his career, Griffin had a stretch of five seasons averaging at least 4.9 assists per game (2014–15 through 2018–19). Many still think of Griffin as an explosive leaper who could put defenders on posters on a nightly basis, but as injuries have grounded his game over the years, he has become a high level passer and secondary initiator. Plumlee also is an underrated passer, and some of that is probably due to playing as a backup to Nikola Jokic, one of the best passing big men of all time, for the last three seasons. As a pairing, Griffin and Plumlee should put on a passing clinic, freeing up teammates for cuts or open spot-up opportunities all season long.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: Derrick Rose is traded to a playoff team by the deadline.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

The Pistons will run out a three center lineup in 6.5 games this season.

Prediction (18–54, 15th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)

21–51, 14th in East

Indiana Pacers

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 45–28 (4th in East, lost to MIA in first round)

OffRtg: 109.5 (19th) | DefRtg: 107.5 (6th) | NetRtg: 1.9 (13th) | Pace: 99.41 (22nd)

Offseason Moves

Arrived: Jalen Lecque, Nate Bjorkgren (coach)

Departed: TJ Leaf, Nate McMillan (coach)

Drafted: Cassius Stanley

Expiring: Victor Oladipo ($21m), Doug McDermott ($7.3m), TJ McConnell, JaKarr Sampson

Rotation

Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, TJ Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner

Bench: Aaron Holiday, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott, JaKarr Sampson, Goga Bitadze

Most Intriguing Lineup: Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, TJ Warren, Doug McDermott, Domantas Sabonis

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Can new Pacers head coach Nate Bjorkgren unlock the offense (especially Victor Oladipo)?

Three Things I Believe

• The Pacers will begin resembling their team name with a more up-tempo offense this season. In recent years, the Pacers have been stuck in the middle third of the league (or lower) in offensive efficiency and pace. Under former head coach Nate McMillan, the Pacers were known as more of a defensive-minded team who played a somewhat bland style on the offensive end, one that didn’t make use of extending defenses with three-point shots (they have ranked 25th of lower in three-point attempts in the league over the last 4 seasons, and dead last in 2019–20). New head coach Nate Bjorkgren, a former assistant under Nick Nurse in Toronto, is likely to give the franchise a much needed offensive makeover this season. I expect to see more ball movement, more threes, and a more energetic offense out of the Pacers this season. Overall, given the presence of athletic slashers like Oladipo and floor spacers like Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Doug McDermott on the roster, the Pacers could conceivably crack the top 10 in the league in pace this season — and that would be a welcome sight to see.
• If Bjorkgren cannot make the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis frontcourt pairing work better, the Pacers should move on from Turner. One of the more troubling questions facing the Pacers is what to do about the Sabonis-Turner frontcourt; it’s not uncommon to see columns written each year saying one or the other needs to go, that the two players don’t work together and never will. I’m not convinced that’s the case. Both are only 24 years old and their skill sets are distinct enough to complement each other (Turner’s perimeter shooting and shot blocking; Sabonis’ low post offense and passing), which should mean the Pacers have a dynamic frontcourt pairing for the next 8–10 years. Nevertheless, it seems as though the Pacers have needed to ultimately choose one or the other for at least the last two seasons. If Bjorkgren cannot maximize the fit of his starting frontcourt tandem, I would look to move Turner and continue building around Sabonis, an All-Star last season who has 20–10–5 upside and the potential to expand his range this season.
• This will be a critical season for Victor Oladipo’s future — and Indiana’s too. Oladipo’s career with the Pacers began with a bang. After arriving in Indiana as a part of the Paul George trade (a trade that also included Sabonis), Oladipo broke through in the 2017–18 season, averaging a career high 23.1 points to go with 4.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and a staggering 2.4 steals, making him the steals champion for the league that season. He also earned his first All-Star selection, was named to the All-NBA third team, and won the league’s Most Improved Player award his first season with the Pacers. All indications suggested the Pacers had found their star of the future. Then he suffered a ruptured quad in early 2018, and he has never looked the same since. Oladipo is in the final year of his contract and is set to become an unrestricted free agent. There have been mixed messages coming out of his camp as to whether he would like to return to the Pacers after this season, which is something to monitor as we head into 2020–21. With the 2021 free agent class now ravaged by players signing early extensions, Oladipo could be a big fish in a smaller pond this summer — and the Pacers could be on the hook for a lot of money if they want to keep him.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Pacers are a top 13 offense by the end of the season.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

Sabonis’ physical style in the post will result in 12.5 bloody noses for defenders this season.

Prediction (36–36, 8th in East)

37–35, 7th in East

Milwaukee Bucks

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 56–17 (1st in East, lost to MIA in second round of playoffs)

OffRtg: 111.9 (8th) | DefRtg: 102.5 (1st) | NetRtg: 9.4 (1st) | Pace: 105.51 (1st)

Offseason Moves

Arrived: Jrue Holiday (trade), Bobby Portis, DJ Augistin, Torrey Craig, Bryn Forbes

Departed: Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Robin Lopez

Drafted: Jordan Nwora, Sam Merrill

Expiring: Torrey Craig

Rotation

Starters: Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middelton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Bench: DJ Augustin, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, DJ Wilson

Most Intriguing Lineup: DJ Augustin, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middelton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Can the Bucks devise a ‘Plan B’ in the playoffs and take the next step toward the Finals?

Three Things I Believe

• Giannis Antetokounmpo has to become more of a threat to knock down shots outside of the paint. The last two seasons for Giannis have followed the same overall script: tremendous success and personal achievements (including back-to-back MVP award wins) in the regular season followed by heartbreaking failures in the playoffs. In the highest leverage moments in consecutive postseasons, opposing teams have cut off Giannis’ driving lanes, forcing him to shoot from outside the paint, and he hasn’t been able to deliver. To be fair, Giannis is not solely to blame for the Bucks’ disappointing playoff results the last two seasons. There’s plenty of blame to go around. But he still hasn’t found a way to shore up the most glaring weakness in his game through six seasons in the league. Giannis is extremely effective around the rim, shooting 74.2% in the restricted area last season. However, that efficiency plummets when he is forced into shots that aren’t dunks or layups. He only shot 38.2% from the paint (non restricted area) on 178 attempts last season and only slightly better from the mid-range (38.8% on 116 attempts). His struggles with the three-point shot are well documented, but I find his low non-restricted area and mid-range percentages more concerning. If Giannis can get into the mid-40 percentile outside of the paint, that will punish teams for clogging up the lane, and maybe it will get the Bucks over the hump.
• Jrue Holiday is a perfect fit for the Bucks, but the price the team paid to acquire him leaves them with little flexibility to improve this season. After two high profile flops in the playoffs and Giannis’s free agency approaching, the Bucks had to do something drastic to improve the roster and their chances of breaking through to the NBA Finals. They managed to do just that this offseason, acquiring Jrue Holiday from the Pelicans in a convoluted four-team deal that sent (among other things) Eric Bledsoe, two first round picks, and two pick swaps to New Orleans. It was a steep price to pay for a player who has only made one All-Star team in his eleven-year career and has an opt-out after this season, but it was something the Bucks had to do to convince Giannis ultimately to stay long term. In terms of what he brings on the court, Holiday will bolster an already elite defense. He is one of the better defenders in the league from the guard position, having made two All-Defensive teams in his career. Holiday will also bring more reliable shooting to Milwaukee’s starting unit (career 35.4% three-point shooter), which will be especially important in the playoffs. I really like the fit for the Bucks.
• While I like the bench pieces the Bucks added this offseason, I don’t love them. The Bucks starting five only has one significant question mark (Donte DiVincenzo); their newly formed bench unit is filled with them. Who’s going to fill the backup center spot that Robin Lopez vacated this offseason? Who is going to defend? Can the Bucks rely on anyone other than DJ Augistin on their second unit to score? I’m interested to see the games when Augustin and Bobby Portis go off, but I am not convinced the Bucks have done enough to add guys who they can rely on to hold their own in a playoff setting. Milwaukee’s postseason success will (again) depend heavily on the starters this season.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: Jrue Holiday either receives an extension or opts into his 2021–22 player option.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

The Bucks will post a 102.0 Defensive Rating this season.

Prediction (46–26, 1st in East according to FiveThirtyEight)

49–23, 1st in East

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 46–27 (3rd in West, lost to LAL in Western Conference Finals)

OffRtg: 112.6 (5th) | DefRtg: 110.4 (16th) | NetRtg: 2.2 (11th) | Pace: 97.64 (29th)

Offseason Moves

Acquired: JaMychal Green (2 years, $14.75m), Facundo Campazzo, Isaiah Hartenstein

Lost: Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee

Drafted: RJ Hampton, Zeke Nnaji

Expiring: Paul Millsap ($10m)

Rotation

Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic

Bench: Monte Morris, Facundo Campazzo, Will Barton, PJ Dozier, JaMychal Green, Isaiah Hartenstein, Bol Bol

Most Intriguing Lineup: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Bol Bol, Nikola Jokic

Biggest Question for 2020–21

Can Michael Porter Jr. become a reliable third banana for the Nuggets?

Three Things I Believe

• The Nuggets could really benefit from Michael Porter Jr. becoming at least a passable NBA defender. One of the more surprising moves of the offseason was Jerami Grant’s decision to leave Denver for a larger role with the bottom feeding Detroit Pistons. Strangely enough, the Nuggets reportedly were willing to match Detroit’s three-year, $60m offer, but Grant still decided against returning to his former team. With Grant no longer in the fold, the Nuggets have a clear hole to fill defensively and few options on the roster who can replicate what he brought with his athleticism and switchability. From a physical standpoint, Michael Porter Jr. at least has the size and athleticism to step into Grant’s place. However, as was painfully evident in the playoffs, Porter still has a long way to go in terms of his defensive IQ and commitment. Teams regularly targeted him in the pick-and-roll during the playoffs, and more often than not he looked completely lost on that end of the floor. Porter is a rare talent on the offensive end given his size (6-foot-10) and ability to score from all three levels, both in catch-and-shoot situations or taking his defender off the dribble. The Nuggets do have a few options to fill Grant’s role defensively, but if Porter can show meaningful improvement on that end of the floor, the Nuggets could be bound for a second consecutive Western Conference Finals appearance — and possibly more.
• The Nuggets will finish top 3 in offensive efficiency this season. Last season the Nuggets finished as the fifth best offense in the league, averaging 112.6 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. This season I think they should be able to jump into the top 3. Two things will ultimately determine if the Nuggets can crack the top 3 in this category in 2020–21: (1) Jamal Murray’s ability to translate his postseason performance into the regular season; (2) Michael Porter Jr. taking on an expanded role in year 2. Murray has looked the part of a solid number 2 option behind Nikola Jokic the past two seasons, but in the ‘Bubble’ last season he took a massive leap towards stardom. His regular season averages (18.5 points, 4.8 assists, 4 rebounds) ballooned during Denver’s improbable run to the Western Conference Finals, a stretch in which Murray averaged 26.5 points on 50.5% shooting (45.3% from three), 6.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds, and consistently took over games down the stretch when the Nuggets desperately needed it. It’s difficult to say with confidence that the Nuggets will get that version of Murray through the regular season, but even if they can get another step in that direction from him their offense should be better in 2020–21. Factor in an increased role and another year of development for Porter Jr., who averaged 16 points on 51.4% shooting from the field last season, and the Nuggets should have an even more elite offense this season.
• The Nuggets have been one of the most impressively opportunistic teams in the draft in recent years. Beginning with the selection of Michael Porter Jr. with the 14th overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Nuggets have made a habit of snatching up players projected in the top 15 who ultimately fell well below their expected draft ranges — the other two being Bol Bol in 2019 (44th overall) and RJ Hampton this year (24th). If these three players hit, Denver will be positioned to make a serious run at the NBA Finals for years to come. I expect to see Bol and Hampton follow a similar timeline as Porter, which would mean occasional rotation appearances for Bol this season and for Hampton next season.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: Michael Porter Jr. wins this season’s Most Improved Player award.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

The towering lineup of Jokic, Bol, Green, and Porter will appear in at least 22.5 games this season.

Prediction (45–27, 2nd in West according to FiveThirtyEight)

47–25, 2nd in West

Minnesota Timberwolves

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 19–45 (14th in West)

OffRtg: 107.6 (24th) | DefRtg: 111.6 (20th) | NetRtg: -4.0 (24th) | Pace: 103.94 (3rd)

Offseason Moves

Acquired: Ricky Rubio (trade), Ed Davis

Lost: Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans

Drafted: Anthony Edwards, Leandro Bolmaro, Jaden McDaniels

Expiring: Ed Davis ($5m)

Rotation

Starters: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Josh Okogie, Juan Hernangomez, Karl-Anthony Towns

Bench: Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jarrett Culver, Jake Layman, Naz Reid, Ed Davis

Most Intriguing Lineup: D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Josh Okogie, Karl-Anthony Towns

Biggest Question in 2020–21

How well will D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns work together?

Three Things I Believe

• Despite some improvements to the roster, the Timberwolves will still need to beat teams primarily with offense. The Timberwolves should be able to reach at least the top 17–10 range in offensive efficiency this season with their quick-trigger system and the talent they have assembled on that side of the ball (Towns, Russell, Malik Beasley, and number 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards). What’s less certain is if they can take a meaningful step forward on the defensive end. The starting unit is riddled with holes on that end of the floor with players like Russell, Beasley, and Towns not being known as particularly effective defenders at the NBA level. Newsflash: Josh Okogie is good, but he can’t guard five positions at once. The second unit has some potentially capable defenders, specifically Ricky Rubio, Jarrett Culver, and, if he is able to focus on it, Antony Edwards. I will be interested to see how head coach Ryan Saunders deploys lineups in an effort to strike a balance on both ends of the court this season. I’m not necessarily going to resign the Wolves to the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency from the outset of the season, but I do question just how good they can be given their likely starting and closing lineups.
• Ryan Saunders may not be the right man for the job. The decision made by the TImberwolves to give Saunders the full-time head coaching gig, after firing Tom Thibodeau, during the 2018–19 season was one of the feel-good stories of the year. The son of the franchise’s legendary coach Flip Saunders, the younger Saunders had endeared himself in the locker room, and especially with Towns, the face of the franchise. In his first year and a half in the job, the results haven’t been there yet for the 34-year-old coach. The Wolves have gone a combined 36–70 and finished last season 14th in the West (19–45). This season, with a relatively new and improved roster, we should get a clearer read on Saunders’ abilities as a motivator and tactician. If the franchise continues to flounder, the Wolves may need to consider bringing in a new voice sooner than later.
• The Timberwolves trading for Ricky Rubio is one of my favorite under-the-radar moves of the offseason. The Wolves are a very young team, both in terms of age and experience in the league. Of the players who figure to be in the top 10–11 of their rotation this season, only Rubio, Ed Davis, and Jake Layman are over the age of 26, and six are not yet 25 years old. That’s a lot of young players being thrust into prominent roles early in their careers. This is where the addition of Rubio will be huge for the Wolves this season. A former number 5 overall pick of the franchise, Rubio should be a valuable voice in the locker room and a steadying presence on the court, providing the team with the kind of leadership that can only come with age and experience. Rubio knows his role at this point of his career and should connect with the team’s young star Karl-Anthony Towns better than former teammate Jimmy Butler ever could. He is also a consummate professional who should be able to be something like a coach on the floor to players like Anthony Edwards and Jarrett Culver as a part of the second unit. I think this was a homerun acquisition for the Wolves.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Timberwolves finish in the bottom 3 of the West this season.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

The lineup of Russell, Beasley, Edwards, Towns, and “insert player here” will post a 115.5 defensive rating this season.

Prediction (35–37, 11th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)

27–45, 14th in West

Oklahoma City Thunder

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 44–28 (5th in the West, lost to HOU in first round of playoffs)

OffRtg: 110.1 (17th) | DefRtg: 108.1 (7th) | NetRtg: 2.1 (12th) | Pace: 99.42 (21st)

Offseason Moves

Acquired: George Hill (trade), Al Horford (trade), Trevor Ariza (trade), Justin Jackson (trade), Ty Jerome (trade), TJ Leaf (trade), Darius Miller (trade), countless 1st round picks, Mark Daigneault (coach)

Lost: Chris Paul, Steven Adams, Dennis Schröder, Billy Donovan (coach)

Drafted: Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon, Vit Krejci

Expiring: Trevor Ariza ($12.8m), Darius Miller ($7m), Mike Muscala

Rotation

Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Al Horford

Bench: Theo Maledon, Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Roby, Justin Jackson, Kendrich Williams, Darius Miller, Trevor Ariza, Mike Muscala, Aleksej Pokusevski

Most Intriguing Lineup: Theo Maledon, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Aleksej Pokusevski

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Of all the veterans the Thunder acquired in a string of offseason trades, who’s worth keeping?

Three Things I Believe

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star in the making. Though his first two seasons in the NBA, we still haven’t witnessed the full SGA experience. After a promising rookie season with the Clippers, he was dealt (along with a treasure trove of picks) to the Thunder in exchange for Paul George. Once the Thunder swapped Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul a week later, that move guaranteed Gilgeous-Alexander would have to wait his turn for a more featured role in the Thunder’s offense. Now that Paul has moved on to the Suns, it’s officially go-time for SGA as the focal point in Oklahoma City, a role I fully expect he will thrive in. Given his skill set and the lack of offensive talent surrounding him this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if SGA finishes this season averaging something around the range of 23 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds, and gets some serious consideration for the Most Improved Player award by season’s end. He is a highly capable two-way player already, and I can see him becoming the star attraction in Oklahoma City for years to come.
• George Hill and Trevor Ariza (at least) should be gone by the trade deadline. The Thunder are the only team in the Western Conference who is clearly in the midst of a comprehensive rebuild. For any rebuilding team, the upcoming season offers the opportunity to focus on developing the young talent they have and flipping any veterans on the roster for assets to help them achieve their long-term goals. For the Thunder, George Hill and Trevor Ariza are the least likely to finish the season with the team. Both are savvy veterans with oodles of playoff experience, and are capable of helping almost any team looking to make a run into the postseason this season. The return for either player would likely be a modest one considering that they project into reserve roles for most playoff-bound teams, and also because neither has a lot of money remaining on his contract ($9.5m this season and a $10m non-guaranteed second year for Hill; Ariza is on a $12.8m expiring deal). The Thunder could also throw in Mike Muscala’s $2.28m expiring contract in a potential trade for either player. Al Horford’s contract is probably still too unpalatable for Oklahoma City to move, so I expect he will remain with the team this season as he attempts to build up his value for a move in the future.
• If Luguentz Dort can develop any semblance of a consistent shot — watch out! Dort was one of the darlings of the Orlando “Bubble” experience. As an undrafted rookie, the hounding, physical defense he played against James Harden in the first round of the playoffs endeared him to every inch of the NBA world located outside of Houston, Texas; and his Game 7 offensive explosion (30 points) left us all hoping with bated breath that he could sink the series-clinching three in the closing seconds of the game to complete the fairy tale season. Unfortunately for most, Harden blocked the shot and the Rockets ended the Thunder’s improbable run. But Dort’s performance in Orlando has secured his position, at least as a lock-down defender, in the league for what should be a long time to come. The next step in his evolution as a player will be on the offensive end. If he can start hitting shots, the Thunder will have another valuable building block for the future.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishes top three in Most Improved Player voting.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

The Thunder will feature a lineup where 2/3rds of the players are legally too young to drink in 8.5 minutes per game this season.

Prediction (27–45, 15th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)

22–50, 15th in West

Portland Trail Blazers

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 35–39 (8th in West, lost to LAL in first round of playoffs)

OffRtg: 113.2 (3rd) | DefRtg: 114.3 (27th) | NetRtg: -1.1 (18th) | Pace: 101.17 (13th)

Offseason Moves

Acquired: Robert Covington (trade), Derrick Jones Jr., Enes Kanter (trade), Harry Giles

Lost: Hassan Whiteside, Trevor Ariza

Drafted: CJ Elleby

Expiring: Enes Kanter ($5m), Carmelo Anthony, Harry Giles

Rotation

Starters: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Derrick Jones Jr., Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic

Bench: Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr., Rodney Hood, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter

Most Intriguing Lineup: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr., Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic

Biggest Question in 2020–21

How much can the Blazers defense improve this season?

Three Things I Believe

• This Blazers team could earn home court advantage in the playoffs this season. Portland had one of the more impressive offseasons in the league last month. General manager Neil Olshey addressed several areas of need on the roster through trades and free agent signings, but none was more important than the players brought in to improve the team’s defense on the wing. First, they acquired Robert Covington, one of the more capable multi-positional defenders in the league, in a trade with the Houston Rockets. Then the Blazers followed that up by signing free agent wing Derrick Jones Jr., a long and wiry athlete who can play above the rim on offense and defend multiple positions on the other end. Finally, they brought in more depth to the frontcourt, signing former Blazer Enes Kanter and adding Harry Giles, a talented but oft-injured big, to their center rotation. With these new pieces, the Blazers will enter this season with the deepest team they have had in years. If things break Portland’s way, I can see their ceiling as a 4 seed in the playoffs, which would earn them home court advantage in the first round.
• Backup point guard is still at least a moderate level of concern. Anfernee Simons, Portland’s backup point guard, had a rough go of things during his first season as a rotational player last season. In 70 games he averaged a paltry 8.3 points on 39.9% shooting from the field (33.2% from three) and 1.4 assists in 20.7 minutes per game. He wasn’t much better defensively, either. All in all, it wasn’t the kind of season the Blazers expected — or needed — from their second year point guard. However, some of the hand wringing over Simons’ play entering this season seems a little overblown, failing to take into account some important factors that likely contributed to his underwhelming performance last season. For starters, Simons is still very young, both in terms of his age and his development as a player. He entered the league as a 19-year-old kid who didn’t play collegiately before making the jump to the NBA. It’s safe to assume it could take some time for him to adjust to the professional game. Also, Portland doesn’t utilize its backup point guard position as most other teams do. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are highly capable facilitators of the offense, and when Simons is on the floor with them he will typically assume more of a secondary role as a playmaker, taking valuable reps away in the process. I expect Simons will take a clear step forward in his play this season.
• Even though the Blazers are deeper on the wing than they have been in years, Gary Trent Jr.’s performance in the “Bubble” last season should earn him an increased role in 2020–21. Trent was one of the breakout stars of the Orlando restart last season after playing a modest role in Potland’s rotation before play was suspended in March. During the seeding games, as the Blazers were pushing for a spot in the playoffs, Trent took a leap forward, tallying 16 points or more in 6 of the 8 seeding games, a significant bump after he averaged only 8.9 points per game in the regular season. He also filled in admirably as a defender on the wing, taking the toughest assignments for long stretches both during the seeding games and in the first round of the playoffs. As we head into the 2020–21 season, the Blazers have more depth on the wing than they have had in years. I expect Trent’s role with the team will decrease this season given the additions of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr., as well as Rodney Hood returning from injury. But I believe Trent proved his worth in Orlando and should still have a reasonable role in the rotation.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Blazers jump to a top 18 defensive team this season.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

Carmelo Anthony will be asked 72.5 questions about coming off the bench this season.

Prediction (39–33, 8th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)

42–30, 5th in West

Utah Jazz

How They Fared Last Season

Record: 44–28 (6th in West, lost to DEN in first round of playoffs)

OffRtg: 111.8 (9th) | DefRtg: 109.3 (13th) | NetRtg: 2.5 (9th) | Pace: 99.15 (24th)

Offseason Moves

Acquired: Derrick Favors (3 years, $29m), Shaquille Harrison

Lost: Ed Davis

Drafted: Udoka Azibukie, Elijah Hughes

Expiring: Mike Conley ($34.5m), Georges Niang, Shaquille Harrison

Rotation

Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert

Bench: Jordan Clarkson, Shaquille Harrison, Joe Ingles, Georges Niang, Derrick Favors

Most Intriguing Lineup: Jordan Clarkson, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert

Biggest Question in 2020–21

Are better health and familiar faces enough to take the Jazz deep into the playoffs?

Three Things I Believe

• The Jazz need Mike Conley to have a bounce-back season. The 2019–20 season was a rough transition for Conley as took on a new role on a new team. In his first season with the Jazz, he posted his lowest averages in points (14.4) and assists (4.4) per game since the early years of his career, and his lowest field goal percentage of his career (40.9%). But things seemed to click for him in the playoffs against the Nuggets. Conley looked more comfortable in his role and the results confirmed it — he averaged 19.8 points on 48.4% shooting from the field (52.9% from three) to go with 5.2 assists, and nearly hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer at the end of Game 7 to send the Jazz to the second round. Conley, at age 33, is entering his final season of his contract and is set to become an unrestricted free agent. While it is unlikely the Jazz will look to move him unless something drastic happens, his performance this season will determine whether the team decides to bring him back next season. If Conley’s performance in the “Bubble” carries over, the Jazz are a shoo-in for the playoffs, with the potential to earn home court advantage, and could look to bring him back on a short-term deal in the offseason.
• Outside of Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic is the most important offensive player for the Jazz. During their run in the bubble, the Jazz sorely missed Bogdanovic, who was recovering from season-ending wrist surgery performed after the season was suspended in March. Bogdanovic was the Jazz’s second leading scorer in 2019–20, averaging 20.2 points per game, and also the team’s most accurate three-point shooter (41.4% on 7.3 attempts per game). While doesn’t offer much on the defensive end, his presence as a threat to knock down shots makes him invaluable alongside a player like Mitchell, who can draw a crowd when he drives to the basket, freeing up open perimeter shots for his teammates. Had Bogdanovic played in the “Bubble”, it’s very likely the Jazz would have at least made it to the second round of the playoffs, and possibly more. With Conley settling into his role, I’d like to see what a healthy version of this Jazz team can do in the playoffs this season.
• The Jazz chose to go the route of continuity this offseason — it was the right decision. Utah was not very active in the free agent market during the offseason, which wasn’t too surprising considering their salary cap situation and the looming decision on Rudy Gobert’s extension. The most noteworthy move the Jazz made was bringing back longtime forward/center Derrick Favors on a three-year, $29m contract after he left for one year sabbatical with the Pelicans in 2019. Favors will slot into his old role as a defensive anchor and roll threat in the Jazz’s second unit. Additionally, Utah re-signed sixth man Jordan Clarkson, who chipped in 19 points on 48.3% shooting (41.7% from three) and 5 rebounds per game off the bench last season, and agreed to a five-year, $205m supermax extension with Gobert. Losing either Clarkson or Gobert would have put a serious dent into a Jazz team whose ceiling we haven’t yet been able to fully see to this point. The 2020–21 season will give us a clearer picture of just how good this iteration of the Utah Jazz can be. Sticking with what’s familiar was the correct decision in the short term, and if things don’t work out this season, they will have some flexibility to tweak things next summer when Conley’s $34.5m contract comes off the books.

Don’t Be Surprised If…: The Jazz earn home court advantage in the playoffs this season.

Over/Under I’d Love to See

Rudy Gobert will get 6.7 screen assists per game this season — and Jazz fans will gush endlessly over every single one of them.

Prediction (41–31, 7th in West according to FiveThirtyEight)